Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Belgrade 2 (Serbia), hard (indoor) - 1/16-finals

Date: 4 November 2024, Monday


	Marin Cilic		Alexandre Muller

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.45	2.7
	1.46	2.65	Watch
	1.49	2.79
	1.45	2.84	Watch
	1.5	2.6	Watch
	1.46	2.74	Watch
	1.46	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.66)	2.72 ↑ (2.24)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marin Cilic
65%

Alexandre Muller
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.4%

42.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marin Cilic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Marin Cilic's performance.

Alexandre Muller has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alexandre Muller might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marin Cilic than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Marin Cilic that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexandre Muller than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alexandre Muller could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Marin Cilic - Alexandre Muller Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Cilic will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Muller will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cilic: 45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Cilic is ranked ATP: 201. Muller is ranked ATP: 68.

Cilic is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Muller is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Cilic could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Cilic will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marin Cilic
ATP Paris
29.10.24	Arthur Fils - Marin Cilic	2:0 ✺
ATP Basel
22.10.24	Marin Cilic - Alejandro Tabilo	0:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
02.10.24	Marin Cilic - Arthur Cazaux	0:2 ✺
ATP Tokyo
26.09.24	Marin Cilic - Kei Nishikori	1:2 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
24.09.24	Marin Cilic - Zhizhen Zhang	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLLLW
- Alexandre Muller
ATP Paris
26.10.24	Alexandre Muller - Roberto Carballes Baena	0:2 ✺
ATP Vienna
20.10.24	Jakub Mensik - Alexandre Muller	2:0 ✺
19.10.24	Maximilian Marterer - Alexandre Muller	1:2 ✺
ATP Stockholm
17.10.24	Andrey Rublev - Alexandre Muller	2:0 ✺
15.10.24	Leo Borg - Alexandre Muller	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWLW

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