Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday


	Matteo Berrettini		Daniel Vallejo

	1	2
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.57	2.35	Watch
	1.57	2.40	Watch
	1.55	2.38	Watch
	1.55	2.45
	1.59	2.40	Watch
	1.55	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.51)	2.39 ↓ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Berrettini
60.4%

Daniel Vallejo
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62%

38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Berrettini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Daniel Vallejo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Berrettini than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Vallejo than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Matteo Berrettini - Daniel Vallejo Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Berrettini will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Vallejo will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Vallejo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Set - Vallejo (2.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Vallejo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Berrettini is ranked ATP: 47., and Vallejo is ranked ATP: 56..

In recent outings, Berrettini has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Vallejo shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Vallejo may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Berrettini is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Last Results with these Odds

Matteo Berrettini - the odds 1.51 are the expected chance of winning is 61.96%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Daniel Vallejo - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 38.04%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Berrettini
ATP Tokyo
01.10.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Matteo Berrettini	1:2 ✺
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Matteo Berrettini - Mariano Navone	1:3 ✺
31.08.26	Matteo Berrettini - Stanislas Wawrinka	3:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
15.08.26	Jiri Lehecka - Matteo Berrettini	2:1 ✺
14.08.26	Titouan Droguet - Matteo Berrettini	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLWLW
- Daniel Vallejo
ATP Tokyo
01.10.26	Daniel Vallejo - Rafael Jodar	2:0 ✺
29.09.26	Daniel Vallejo - Jaime Faria	2:1 ✺
28.09.26	Daniel Vallejo - Taro Daniel	2:0 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
26.09.26	Chak Lam Coleman Wong - Daniel Vallejo	2:1 ✺
24.09.26	Jie Cui - Daniel Vallejo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 WWWLW

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