Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Miami, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday


	Alexander Bublik		Matteo Berrettini

	1	2
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.55	2.4	Watch
	1.57	2.42	Watch
	1.63	2.41
	1.58	2.31	Watch
	1.62	2.3
	1.63	2.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.66)	2.37 ↑ (2.24)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexander Bublik
59.8%

Matteo Berrettini
40.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.5%

42.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

46.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexander Bublik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Matteo Berrettini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexander Bublik than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alexander Bublik that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Berrettini than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Matteo Berrettini could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Alexander Bublik - Matteo Berrettini Predictions

Users Predictions: Alexander Bublik will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Bublik is ranked ATP: 11. Berrettini is ranked ATP: 68.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Berrettini may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Bublik might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Bublik won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Alexander Bublik - the odds 1.66 are the expected chance of winning is 57.51%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexander Bublik
ATP Indian Wells
09.03.26	Alexander Bublik - Rinky Hijikata	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	Alexander Bublik - Vit Kopriva	2:1 ✺
ATP Dubai
25.02.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Alexander Bublik	2:0 ✺
24.02.26	Jan-Lennard Struff - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
ATP Doha
17.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Alexander Bublik	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWLW?
- Matteo Berrettini
ATP Miami
19.03.26	Alexandre Muller - Matteo Berrettini	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
06.03.26	Matteo Berrettini - Alexander Zverev	0:2 ✺
04.03.26	Matteo Berrettini - Adrian Mannarino	2:1 ✺
ATP Santiago
24.02.26	Emilio Nava - Matteo Berrettini	2:0 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
20.02.26	Ignacio Buse - Matteo Berrettini	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Antalya
11.01.21	Matteo Berrettini - Alexander Bublik	0:2
ATP Challenger
16.09.17	Matteo Berrettini - Alexander Bublik	2:0

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