Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Miami, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday


	Matteo Berrettini		Valentin Vacherot

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
			Watch
	1.65	2.2	Watch
	1.74	2.23
	1.67	2.21	Watch
	1.67	2.2
	1.68	2.22	Watch
	1.73	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.76)	2.19 ↑ (1.98)

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Berrettini
56.5%

Valentin Vacherot
43.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.9%

47.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.8%

50.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Berrettini has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Valentin Vacherot has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Berrettini than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matteo Berrettini that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valentin Vacherot than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Valentin Vacherot could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.2%	0%	58.8%

Matteo Berrettini - Valentin Vacherot Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Berrettini will win (votes: 6 - 37.5%). Vacherot will win (votes: 10 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vacherot: 38.8% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Berrettini (votes: 1 - 50%). Vacherot (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Berrettini is ranked ATP: 68. Vacherot is ranked ATP: 25.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Vacherot may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Berrettini
ATP Miami
20.03.26	Alexander Bublik - Matteo Berrettini	0:2 ✺
19.03.26	Alexandre Muller - Matteo Berrettini	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
06.03.26	Matteo Berrettini - Alexander Zverev	0:2 ✺
04.03.26	Matteo Berrettini - Adrian Mannarino	2:1 ✺
ATP Santiago
24.02.26	Emilio Nava - Matteo Berrettini	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWLWL
- Valentin Vacherot
ATP Miami
20.03.26	Mariano Navone - Valentin Vacherot	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
09.03.26	Valentin Vacherot - Casper Ruud	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	Valentin Vacherot - Nuno Borges	2:0 ✺
ATP Acapulco
26.02.26	Valentin Vacherot - Brandon Nakashima	1:2 ✺
25.02.26	Valentin Vacherot - Gael Monfils	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLWLW

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