Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cap Cana, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 11 March 2026, Wednesday


	Nicolas Mejia		Shintaro Mochizuki

	1	2
	1.62	2.2	Watch
			Watch
	1.61	2.17
	1.68	2.29
	1.6	2.23	Watch
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.63	2.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (2.11)	2.17 ↑ (1.65)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nicolas Mejia
56.9%

Shintaro Mochizuki
43.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.9%

56.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

57.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nicolas Mejia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nicolas Mejia's performance.

Shintaro Mochizuki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Shintaro Mochizuki might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nicolas Mejia than the current prediction. (-14.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nicolas Mejia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shintaro Mochizuki than the current prediction. (+14.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Shintaro Mochizuki could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Nicolas Mejia - Shintaro Mochizuki Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Mejia will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mejia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Mejia is ranked ATP: 181. Mochizuki is ranked ATP: 130.

Mejia has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mochizuki's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Mochizuki may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Nicolas Mejia - the odds 2.11 are the expected chance of winning is 43.88%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Shintaro Mochizuki - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 56.12%, but this team recently wins 83% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nicolas Mejia
ATP Challenger
10.03.26	Nicolas Mejia - Arthur Fery	2:0 ✺
09.03.26	Martin Damm - Nicolas Mejia	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
02.03.26	Nicolas Mejia - Nikoloz Basilashvili	1:2 ✺
ATP Acapulco
22.02.26	Elias Ymer - Nicolas Mejia	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Bernard Tomic - Nicolas Mejia	Tomic B. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 WWLL?
- Shintaro Mochizuki
ATP Indian Wells
03.03.26	Benjamin Bonzi - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:1 ✺
02.03.26	Federico Agustin Gomez - Shintaro Mochizuki	1:2 ✺
ATP Dubai
21.02.26	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:0 ✺
ATP Doha
17.02.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Karen Khachanov	1:2 ✺
15.02.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Roberto Carballes Baena	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LWLLL

Nicolas Mejia - Shintaro Mochizuki: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide