Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 11 May 2026, Monday

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 11


	Pablo Llamas Ruiz		Daniil Medvedev

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.9	1.42
	2.88	1.48
	2.83	1.43	Watch
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.81	1.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↓ (2.85)	1.45 ↑ (1.42)

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pablo Llamas Ruiz
33.9%

Daniil Medvedev
66.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.3%

66.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.8%

72.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pablo Llamas Ruiz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Daniil Medvedev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Llamas Ruiz than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pablo Llamas Ruiz that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Daniil Medvedev could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	0%	91.7%

Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Daniil Medvedev Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3.5 Games - Medvedev (1.90) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Daniil Medvedev will win (22 of 24 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.61% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Llamas Ruiz is ranked ATP: 139. Medvedev is ranked ATP: 9.

Llamas Ruiz is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Medvedev has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Medvedev may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Medvedev is a strong favorite.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pablo Llamas Ruiz
ATP Roma
09.05.26	Corentin Moutet - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	1:2 ✺
07.05.26	Ethan Quinn - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	1:2 ✺
05.05.26	Jaime Faria - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	1:2 ✺
04.05.26	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Henrique Rocha	2:1 ✺
ATP Madrid
21.04.26	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Elmer Moller	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWWWL
- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Roma
09.05.26	Tomas Machac - Daniil Medvedev	Medvedev D. Walkover ✺
ATP Madrid
28.04.26	Daniil Medvedev - Flavio Cobolli	1:2 ✺
27.04.26	Daniil Medvedev - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Daniil Medvedev - Fabian Marozsan	2:1 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
08.04.26	Daniil Medvedev - Matteo Berrettini	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 ?LWWL

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