Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Lyon, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 20 October 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Lyon 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Pierre-Hugues Herbert		Sebastian Baez

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.60	2.30
	1.6	2.15	Watch
	1.61	2.27	Watch
	1.6	2.4
	1.64	2.27	Watch
	1.6	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.67)	2.25 ↑ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Pierre-Hugues Herbert
58.2%

Sebastian Baez
41.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56.1%

43.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.1%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pierre-Hugues Herbert has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pierre-Hugues Herbert than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pierre-Hugues Herbert that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sebastian Baez could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Pierre Hugues Herbert - Sebastian Baez Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Herbert will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Baez will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Herbert is ranked ATP: 290., and Baez is ranked ATP: 49..

In recent outings, Herbert has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Baez is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Herbert may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have fairly balanced chances of victory.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Last Results with these Odds

Pierre-Hugues Herbert - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 56.05%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pierre-Hugues Herbert
ATP Lyon
19.10.26	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Maxim Mrva	2:1 ✺
18.10.26	Jurij Rodionov - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
14.10.26	Hugo Gaston - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	2:1 ✺
13.10.26	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Norbert Gombos	2:0 ✺
28.09.26	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWLWL
- Sebastian Baez
ATP Shanghai
10.10.26	Sebastian Baez - Valentin Vacherot	0:2 ✺
08.10.26	Marcos Giron - Sebastian Baez	1:2 ✺
ATP Beijing
01.10.26	Juncheng Shang - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
ATP Chengdu
23.09.26	Sebastian Baez - Jenson Brooksby	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
31.08.26	Brandon Nakashima - Sebastian Baez	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWLLL

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pierre-Hugues Herbert
ATP Challenger
27.10.26	Stefano Travaglia - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	✺

Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Sebastian Baez: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide