Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Shanghai 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Sebastian Baez		Valentin Vacherot

	1	2
	3.50	1.30	Watch
	3.40	1.30
	3.70	1.28
	3.67	1.28	Watch
	3.50	1.32
	3.53	1.31	Watch
	3.35	1.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.52 ↑ (3.33)	1.3 ↓ (1.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Baez
26.9%

Valentin Vacherot
73.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

28.8%

71.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8%

69.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Valentin Vacherot has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valentin Vacherot than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Sebastian Baez - Valentin Vacherot Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Baez will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Vacherot will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Baez is ranked ATP: 53., and Vacherot is ranked ATP: 14..

Recent results have been tough for Baez (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Performances by Vacherot have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Vacherot could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Vacherot carries the favorite tag into this contest.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Shanghai
08.10.26	Marcos Giron - Sebastian Baez	1:2 ✺
ATP Beijing
01.10.26	Juncheng Shang - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
ATP Chengdu
23.09.26	Sebastian Baez - Jenson Brooksby	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
31.08.26	Brandon Nakashima - Sebastian Baez	3:0 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
26.08.26	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Sebastian Baez	Baez S. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLL?
- Valentin Vacherot
ATP Tokyo
05.10.26	Jiri Lehecka - Valentin Vacherot	2:0 ✺
04.10.26	Valentin Vacherot - Arthur Fils	2:1 ✺
01.10.26	Valentin Vacherot - Stefanos Tsitsipas	2:1 ✺
29.09.26	Valentin Vacherot - Alexander Blockx	2:0 ✺
ATP Chengdu
26.09.26	Valentin Vacherot - Lloyd Harris	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 LWWWL

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Valentin Vacherot
ATP Basel
29.10.26	Valentin Vacherot - Rafael Jodar	✺

Sebastian Baez - Valentin Vacherot