What is the expert prediction for Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, August 06, 2026)

Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Montreal, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 6 August 2026, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Australia	beIN Sports 1
Austria	Laola1
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1, Max Sport 2
Colombia	ESPN
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 1, Premier Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
Germany	Laola1, Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Peru	ESPN 2
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1, Polsat Sport Premium 2
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 1, Prima Sport PPV 3
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Tennis
Ukraine	Setanta Sports Premium
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Tennis, Sky Sports UHD, Sky Sports+


	Rafael Jodar		Lorenzo Musetti

	1	2
	1.73	2.10	Watch
	1.72	2.10
	1.73	2.10	Watch
	1.79	2.15
	1.7	2.15	Watch
	1.77	2.10	Watch
	1.85	1.98	Watch
	1.75	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.45)	2.09 ↓ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rafael Jodar
54.4%

Lorenzo Musetti
45.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.2%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rafael Jodar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Rafael Jodar's form might have worsened.

Lorenzo Musetti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lorenzo Musetti's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.8%	0%	76.2%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Jodar will win (votes: 5 - 23.8%). Musetti will win (votes: 16 - 76.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Musetti: 58% – 94.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Musetti (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Jodar is ranked ATP: 15. Musetti is ranked ATP: 13.

Jodar is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Jodar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Jodar could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Jodar won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rafael Jodar
ATP Montreal
05.08.26	Rafael Jodar - Corentin Moutet	2:1 ✺
ATP Washington
03.08.26	Taylor Harry Fritz - Rafael Jodar	2:0 ✺
01.08.26	Rafael Jodar - Alejandro Tabilo	2:1 ✺
31.07.26	Rafael Jodar - Lorenzo Musetti	2:1 ✺
29.07.26	Rafael Jodar - Kei Nishikori	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLWWW
- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Montreal
05.08.26	Nicolas Mejia - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
ATP Washington
31.07.26	Rafael Jodar - Lorenzo Musetti	2:1 ✺
29.07.26	Aleksandar Vukic - Lorenzo Musetti	1:2 ✺
27.07.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Lorenzo Musetti	Arnaldi M. Retired ✺
ATP Roma
12.05.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WLW?L

Latest Head to Head

ATP Washington
31.07.26	Rafael Jodar - Lorenzo Musetti	2:1
ATP Miami
20.03.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Rafael Jodar	Canceled

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