Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 24 August 2025, Sunday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max


	Roberto Carballes Baena		Arthur Rinderknech

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
	2.45	1.53
	2.52	1.5	Watch
	2.76	1.5
	2.35	1.58	Watch
	2.38	1.57
	2.57	1.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↓ (3)	1.54 ↑ (1.42)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roberto Carballes Baena
38.1%

Arthur Rinderknech
61.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

67.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8%

69.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roberto Carballes Baena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Roberto Carballes Baena's performance.

Arthur Rinderknech has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arthur Rinderknech might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roberto Carballes Baena than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Roberto Carballes Baena that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arthur Rinderknech than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arthur Rinderknech could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Roberto Carballes Baena - Arthur Rinderknech Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Carballes Baena will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Rinderknech will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carballes Baena: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Roberto Carballes Baena will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Carballes Baena is ranked ATP: 84. Rinderknech is ranked ATP: 77.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Carballes Baena may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Rinderknech will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Carballes Baena won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Arthur Rinderknech - the odds 1.42 are the expected chance of winning is 67.87%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Roberto Carballes Baena
ATP Cincinnati
09.08.25	Francis Tiafoe - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:0 ✺
07.08.25	Roberto Carballes Baena - Hugo Gaston	2:1 ✺
ATP Toronto
30.07.25	Roberto Carballes Baena - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2 ✺
28.07.25	Roberto Carballes Baena - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	Ugo Carabelli C. retired ✺
ATP Umag
21.07.25	Roberto Carballes Baena - Nikoloz Basilashvili	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWL?L
- Arthur Rinderknech
ATP Winston-Salem
17.08.25	Hamad Medjedovic - Arthur Rinderknech	2:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
11.08.25	Arthur Rinderknech - Felix Aliassime-Auger	Rinderknech A. retired ✺
09.08.25	Casper Ruud - Arthur Rinderknech	1:2 ✺
07.08.25	Arthur Rinderknech - Nuno Borges	2:0 ✺
ATP Toronto
28.07.25	Arthur Rinderknech - Alexis Galarneau	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 L?WWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Belgrade 2
24.05.21	Arthur Rinderknech - Roberto Carballes Baena	0:2
ATP Challenger
14.04.21	Roberto Carballes Baena - Arthur Rinderknech	2:0

Roberto Carballes Baena - Arthur Rinderknech: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide