Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Geneva, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 18 May 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Geneva 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Sebastian Baez		Alex Michelsen

	1	2
	1.53	2.5	Watch
	1.57	2.35
	1.52	2.5	Watch
	1.5	2.78
	1.49	2.53	Watch
	1.53	2.5	Watch
	1.54	2.48	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.63)	2.52 ↑ (2.19)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Baez
62.3%

Alex Michelsen
37.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

57.3%

42.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.8%

48.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Alex Michelsen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sebastian Baez that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alex Michelsen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.5%	0%	18.5%

Sebastian Baez - Alex Michelsen Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Baez (votes: 1 - 50%). Michelsen (votes: 1 - 50%).

Users Predictions: Sebastian Baez will win (22 of 27 users predict this - 81.48%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.83% – 96.13%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Baez is ranked ATP: 65. Michelsen is ranked ATP: 42.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Baez may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Baez will hold a modest advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Challenger
14.05.26	Sebastian Baez - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
12.05.26	Sebastian Baez - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:0 ✺
ATP Roma
08.05.26	Sebastian Baez - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
06.05.26	Jenson Brooksby - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
23.04.26	Vilius Gaubas - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LWLWL
- Alex Michelsen
ATP Roma
07.05.26	Sebastian Ofner - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
30.04.26	Alex Michelsen - Pol Martin Tiffon	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
26.04.26	Jiri Lehecka - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
24.04.26	Jan-Lennard Struff - Alex Michelsen	0:2 ✺
22.04.26	Alex Michelsen - Federico Cina	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLLW?

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Michelsen
ATP Basel
29.10.26	Alex Michelsen - Arthur Fils	✺

Sebastian Baez - Alex Michelsen