Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 23 April 2026, Thursday


	Vilius Gaubas		Sebastian Baez

	1	2
	3.2	1.36	Watch
			Watch
	3.1	1.37
	3.17	1.41
	3.19	1.35	Watch
	2.9	1.4	Watch
	3.2	1.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.13 ↓ (3.25)	1.38 ↑ (1.33)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilius Gaubas
30.6%

Sebastian Baez
69.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29%

71%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.6%

69.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilius Gaubas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

The ML Model estimate for Vilius Gaubas aligns with the current prediction.

The ML Model estimate for Sebastian Baez aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	0%	81.8%

Vilius Gaubas - Sebastian Baez Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Baez (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Sebastian Baez will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Gaubas is ranked ATP: 124. Baez is ranked ATP: 64.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Gaubas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Baez is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Gaubas won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:2. (average 0:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vilius Gaubas
ATP Madrid
21.04.26	Rei Sakamoto - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
20.04.26	Arthur Gea - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
11.04.26	Hamad Medjedovic - Vilius Gaubas	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
06.04.26	Vilius Gaubas - Stefano Travaglia	0:2 ✺
ATP Bucharest
31.03.26	Sebastian Baez - Vilius Gaubas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWLLL
- Sebastian Baez
ATP Barcelona
14.04.26	Tomas Machac - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Sebastian Baez - Stanislas Wawrinka	2:0 ✺
ATP Bucharest
03.04.26	Sebastian Baez - Titouan Droguet	0:2 ✺
31.03.26	Sebastian Baez - Vilius Gaubas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Bucharest
31.03.26	Sebastian Baez - Vilius Gaubas	2:0
Davis Cup World Group I
17.09.23	Sebastian Baez - Vilius Gaubas	Canceled

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