Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Auckland, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 15 January 2026, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport PPV 1
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Sebastian Baez		Marcos Giron

	1	2
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.29	1.61	Watch
	1.54	2.47	Watch
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.3	1.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.5)	1.79 ↑ (1.53)

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Baez
45.6%

Marcos Giron
54.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

62%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.7%

59.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sebastian Baez's performance.

Marcos Giron has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Marcos Giron might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marcos Giron than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Sebastian Baez - Marcos Giron Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Baez is ranked ATP: 39. Giron is ranked ATP: 60.

Baez is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Giron is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Giron may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Giron might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Giron will win today's game, with odds of 1.53.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Baez won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Auckland
15.01.26	Ben Shelton - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
13.01.26	Jenson Brooksby - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
12.01.26	Emilio Nava - Sebastian Baez	1:2 ✺
ATP United Cup
07.01.26	Stanislas Wawrinka - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
03.01.26	Taylor Harry Fritz - Sebastian Baez	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 32.9 WWWWW
- Marcos Giron
ATP Auckland
14.01.26	Luciano Darderi - Marcos Giron	1:2 ✺
13.01.26	Marcos Giron - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
12.01.26	Alexandre Muller - Marcos Giron	0:2 ✺
ATP Hong Kong
10.01.26	Marcos Giron - Alexander Bublik	1:2 ✺
09.01.26	Marcos Giron - Michael Mmoh	Mmoh M. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWWL?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Cincinnati
13.08.24	Marcos Giron - Sebastian Baez	1:2
ATP Madrid
29.04.23	Sebastian Baez - Marcos Giron	2:1

Sebastian Baez - Marcos Giron: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide