Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 27 April 2026, Monday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Stefanos Tsitsipas		Daniel Merida Aguilar

	1	2
	1.4	3	Watch
	1.4	2.95
	1.44	3.15
	1.41	2.92	Watch
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.37	3.16	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.49)	2.99 ↑ (2.58)

The best margin for this event is 1.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stefanos Tsitsipas
67.9%

Daniel Merida Aguilar
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.4%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.8%

34.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stefanos Tsitsipas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Daniel Merida Aguilar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stefanos Tsitsipas than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.2%	0%	31.8%

Stefanos Tsitsipas - Daniel Merida Aguilar Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Tsitsipas will win (votes: 15 - 68.2%). Merida Aguilar will win (votes: 7 - 31.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tsitsipas: 48.7% – 87.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tsitsipas (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3 Games - Tsitsipas (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tsitsipas (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Tsitsipas is ranked ATP: 80. Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 102.

In recent matches, Tsitsipas has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Merida Aguilar is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Tsitsipas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Tsitsipas is the team to beat.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Stefanos Tsitsipas - the odds 1.49 are the expected chance of winning is 63.39%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stefanos Tsitsipas
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Alexander Bublik - Stefanos Tsitsipas	0:2 ✺
23.04.26	Patrick Kypson - Stefanos Tsitsipas	1:2 ✺
ATP Munich
15.04.26	Fabian Marozsan - Stefanos Tsitsipas	2:1 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
06.04.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Stefanos Tsitsipas	2:0 ✺
Exhibition UTS Championship Men
04.04.26	Ugo Humbert - Stefanos Tsitsipas	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWLLW
- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Corentin Moutet	2:0 ✺
23.04.26	Marco Trungelliti - Daniel Merida Aguilar	1:2 ✺
21.04.26	Marco Trungelliti - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
20.04.26	Billy Harris - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
12.04.26	Ethan Quinn - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWWWL

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