Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid (Spain), clay - Semi-finals

Date: 3 May 2024, Friday

Referee: Forcadell N. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Croatia	SportKlub
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 3
Denmark	TV2 Sport
Finland	MTV Urheilu
France	Eurosport 1
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top event
Hungary	Match 4
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub
Ukraine	Setanta Sports


	Taylor Harry Fritz		Andrey Rublev

	1	2
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.25	1.65	Watch
	2.25	1.65	Watch
	2.3	1.69
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.26	1.65	Watch
	2.32	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (2.26)	1.65 (1.65)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Taylor Harry Fritz
42%

Andrey Rublev
58%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

57.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

55.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Taylor Harry Fritz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Andrey Rublev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Taylor Harry Fritz than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andrey Rublev than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25.5%	0%	74.5%

Taylor Harry Fritz - Andrey Rublev Predictions

Users Predictions: 50 users predict this event. Fritz will win (votes: 13 - 26%). Rublev will win (votes: 37 - 74%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rublev: 61.8% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Fritz won 4.

At the moment players are feeling good and ready to play.

Fritz could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Rublev will have a small advantage in this match.

Our prediction for today's Rublev to win the game is with odds 1.66.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Fritz won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Taylor Harry Fritz
ATP Madrid
01.05.24	Taylor Harry Fritz - Francisco Cerundolo	2:1 ✺
30.04.24	Hubert Hurkacz - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2 ✺
28.04.24	Sebastian Baez - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2 ✺
26.04.24	Luciano Darderi - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2 ✺
ATP Munich
21.04.24	Taylor Harry Fritz - Jan-Lennard Struff	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWWWL
- Andrey Rublev
ATP Madrid
01.05.24	Andrey Rublev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	2:1 ✺
30.04.24	Andrey Rublev - Tallon Griekspoor	2:0 ✺
28.04.24	Andrey Rublev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0 ✺
26.04.24	Andrey Rublev - Facundo Bagnis	2:0 ✺
ATP Barcelona
16.04.24	Brandon Nakashima - Andrey Rublev	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Laver Cup
23.09.23	Andrey Rublev - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2
ATP Monte Carlo
15.04.23	Andrey Rublev - Taylor Harry Fritz	2:1
ATP Cincinnati
18.08.22	Taylor Harry Fritz - Andrey Rublev	2:1
ATP Indian Wells
19.03.22	Taylor Harry Fritz - Andrey Rublev	2:0
ATP Paris
03.11.21	Taylor Harry Fritz - Andrey Rublev	2:0
ATP Dubai
17.03.21	Taylor Harry Fritz - Andrey Rublev	0:2
ATP Next Gen Finals
06.11.18	Taylor Harry Fritz - Andrey Rublev	2:3

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