Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Cincinnati, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 15 August 2025, Friday


	Andrey Rublev		Carlos Alcaraz Garfia

	1	2
	4.5	1.2	Watch
	4.25	1.22	Watch
	4.25	1.2	Watch
	4.6	1.23
	4.33	1.21	Watch
	4.5	1.2	Watch
			Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.41 ↓ (4.55)	1.21 ↑ (1.2)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrey Rublev
21.5%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
78.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.9%

79.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrey Rublev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	0%	72.7%

Andrey Rublev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Rublev will win (votes: 5 - 23.8%). Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 16 - 76.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alcaraz Garfia: 58% – 94.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +4 Games - Rublev (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 Sets - Alcaraz Garfia (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Carlos Alcaraz Garfia will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Rublev (votes: 2 - 25%). Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 6 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Rublev is ranked ATP: 11. Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 2.

Right now, both players are showing solid form.

Rublev may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Alcaraz Garfia is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rublev won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 1:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - the odds 1.2 are the expected chance of winning is 79.13%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrey Rublev
ATP Cincinnati
13.08.25	Francisco Comesana - Andrey Rublev	0:2 ✺
12.08.25	Alexei Popyrin - Andrey Rublev	1:2 ✺
10.08.25	Learner Tien - Andrey Rublev	0:2 ✺
ATP Toronto
05.08.25	Andrey Rublev - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2 ✺
03.08.25	Andrey Rublev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	Davidovich Fokina A. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWWL?
- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP Cincinnati
13.08.25	Luca Nardi - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
12.08.25	Hamad Medjedovic - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
10.08.25	Damir Dzumhur - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
13.07.25	Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	3:1 ✺
11.07.25	Taylor Harry Fritz - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Wimbledon
06.07.25	Andrey Rublev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:3
ATP World Tour Finals
13.11.24	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Andrey Rublev	2:0
ATP Madrid
01.05.24	Andrey Rublev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	2:1
ATP World Tour Finals
15.11.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Andrey Rublev	2:0
Exhibition World Tennis Championship
17.12.22	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Andrey Rublev	0:2

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