Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Shanghai 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Alex De Minaur		Rei Sakamoto

	1	2
	1.40	3.00	Watch
	1.40	2.95
	1.38	3.00
	1.38	3.05	Watch
	1.40	3.00
	1.41	3.01	Watch
	1.40	3.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↑ (1.35)	3 ↓ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex De Minaur
68.3%

Rei Sakamoto
31.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

70%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

74%

26%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex De Minaur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Rei Sakamoto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alex De Minaur, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rei Sakamoto than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rei Sakamoto, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Alex De Minaur - Rei Sakamoto Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

De Minaur is ranked ATP: 9., and Sakamoto is ranked ATP: 137..

Both players enter this match with positive momentum from recent weeks.

Bookmakers give the edge to De Minaur for this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, De Minaur has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Alex De Minaur - the odds 1.35 are the expected chance of winning is 70%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex De Minaur
ATP Shanghai
09.10.26	Alex De Minaur - Alex Molcan	De Minaur A. win ✺
ATP Beijing
06.10.26	Novak Djokovic - Alex De Minaur	De Minaur A. Retired ✺
05.10.26	Alex De Minaur - Hubert Hurkacz	Hurkacz H. Retired ✺
04.10.26	Alex De Minaur - Andrey Rublev	2:1 ✺
02.10.26	Alex De Minaur - Quentin Halys	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 ???WW
- Rei Sakamoto
ATP Shanghai
09.10.26	Rei Sakamoto - Andrey Rublev	2:0 ✺
07.10.26	Marco Trungelliti - Rei Sakamoto	0:2 ✺
06.10.26	Kyrian Jacquet - Rei Sakamoto	1:2 ✺
05.10.26	Seong Chan Hong - Rei Sakamoto	0:2 ✺
ATP Tokyo
30.09.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Rei Sakamoto	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWWWL

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex De Minaur
ATP Vienna
30.10.26	Matteo Berrettini - Alex De Minaur	✺

Alex De Minaur - Rei Sakamoto