Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 6 September 2026, Sunday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Germany	Laola1


	Tommy Paul		Carlos Alcaraz Garfia

	1	2
	4.5	1.2	Watch
	4.75	1.18
	4.2	1.21
	4.86	1.23
	4.5	1.22	Watch
	4.9	1.2
	4.77	1.19	Watch
	4.25	1.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.59 ↑ (3.81)	1.21 ↓ (1.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 36.00

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tommy Paul
20.8%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
79.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.7%

75.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tommy Paul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	0%	84.6%

Tommy Paul - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Paul (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 4.5 Sets - over (3.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

H/A, 1st Set - Alcaraz Garfia (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Carlos Alcaraz Garfia will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Paul (votes: 1 - 25%). Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Paul is ranked ATP: 21. Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 3.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paul won 0.

Paul is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Alcaraz Garfia is the obvious favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Paul won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 6:17. (average 0.7:1.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tommy Paul
ATP US Open
04.09.26	Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul	2:3 ✺
02.09.26	Dino Prizmic - Tommy Paul	1:3 ✺
30.08.26	Chak Lam Coleman Wong - Tommy Paul	1:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
20.08.26	Tommy Paul - Flavio Cobolli	1:2 ✺
19.08.26	Alexander Zverev - Tommy Paul	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWWLW
- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP US Open
04.09.26	Yibing Wu - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:3 ✺
02.09.26	Jaime Faria - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:3 ✺
31.08.26	Roman Safiullin - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:3 ✺
ATP Barcelona
16.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Tomas Machac	Machac T. Walkover ✺
14.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Otto Virtanen	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WWW?W

Latest Head to Head

ATP Australian Open
24.01.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Tommy Paul	3:0
ATP Roland Garros
03.06.25	Tommy Paul - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:3
ATP Olympic Games
01.08.24	Tommy Paul - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2
ATP Wimbledon
09.07.24	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Tommy Paul	3:1
ATP Cincinnati
17.08.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Tommy Paul	2:1
ATP Toronto
11.08.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Tommy Paul	1:2
ATP Miami
28.03.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Tommy Paul	2:0

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