Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Miami, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday


	Tommy Paul		Raphael Collignon

	1	2
	1.4	3	Watch
	1.36	3.1	Watch
	1.4	2.9	Watch
	1.4	3.21
	1.38	3.05	Watch
	1.4	2.9	Watch
	1.45	2.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↑ (1.35)	3 ↓ (3.01)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tommy Paul
68.2%

Raphael Collignon
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.2%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tommy Paul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Raphael Collignon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Raphael Collignon than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.5%	0%	23.5%

Tommy Paul - Raphael Collignon Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Paul will win (votes: 13 - 76.5%). Collignon will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paul: 56.3% – 96.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Paul (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Paul is ranked ATP: 23. Collignon is ranked ATP: 72.

In recent matches, Paul has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Collignon is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Collignon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Paul is seen as the favorite.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Tommy Paul - the odds 1.35 are the expected chance of winning is 69.04%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tommy Paul
ATP Miami
20.03.26	Tommy Paul - Adrian Mannarino	2:1 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
08.03.26	Joao Fonseca - Tommy Paul	2:0 ✺
06.03.26	Zizou Bergs - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
ATP Delray Beach
22.02.26	Tommy Paul - Sebastian Korda	0:2 ✺
21.02.26	Tommy Paul - Learner Tien	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLWLW
- Raphael Collignon
ATP Miami
20.03.26	Raphael Collignon - Flavio Cobolli	2:0 ✺
19.03.26	Raphael Collignon - Grigor Dimitrov	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
13.03.26	Mattia Bellucci - Raphael Collignon	2:0 ✺
12.03.26	Luca Van Assche - Raphael Collignon	0:2 ✺
10.03.26	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Raphael Collignon	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WWLWW

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