Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid (Spain), clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 28 April 2024, Sunday

Referee: Pinoargote J. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Croatia	SportKlub
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 3
Denmark	TV2 Sport X
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
France	Eurosport 1
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 3
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub
Ukraine	Setanta Sports


	Tommy Paul		Francisco Cerundolo

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.15	1.67
	2.15	1.7	Watch
	2.2	1.75
	2.2	1.75
	2	1.8	Watch
	2.11	1.74	Watch
	2.15	1.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (1.8)	1.74 ↓ (2.01)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tommy Paul
44.9%

Francisco Cerundolo
55.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.7%

47.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

46.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tommy Paul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tommy Paul's form might have worsened.

Francisco Cerundolo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Francisco Cerundolo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tommy Paul, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francisco Cerundolo than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Francisco Cerundolo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Tommy Paul - Francisco Cerundolo Predictions

Users Predictions: Francisco Cerundolo will win (40 of 50 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.91% – 91.09%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Paul is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Cerundolo is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Paul could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both players.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Paul won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tommy Paul
ATP Madrid
26.04.24	Tommy Paul - Lukas Klein	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
23.03.24	Tommy Paul - Martin Damm	Paul T. retired ✺
ATP Indian Wells
16.03.24	Tommy Paul - Daniil Medvedev	1:2 ✺
14.03.24	Tommy Paul - Casper Ruud	2:1 ✺
13.03.24	Luca Nardi - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 W?LWW
- Francisco Cerundolo
ATP Madrid
26.04.24	Fabian Marozsan - Francisco Cerundolo	0:2 ✺
ATP Bucharest
20.04.24	Francisco Cerundolo - Mariano Navone	1:2 ✺
19.04.24	Francisco Cerundolo - Federico Coria	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
10.04.24	Karen Khachanov - Francisco Cerundolo	2:1 ✺
08.04.24	Francisco Cerundolo - Daniel Altmaier	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Toronto
09.08.23	Tommy Paul - Francisco Cerundolo	2:1
ATP Eastbourne
01.07.23	Francisco Cerundolo - Tommy Paul	2:1
ATP London
19.06.23	Tommy Paul - Francisco Cerundolo	1:2
ATP Eastbourne
21.06.22	Francisco Cerundolo - Tommy Paul	1:2

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