Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: San Marino, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 28 July 2026, Tuesday


	Vilius Gaubas		Luka Pavlovic

	1	2
	1.4	2.75	Watch
	1.42	2.65
	1.42	2.7
	1.46	2.86
	1.42	2.67	Watch
	1.4	2.7
	1.37	2.84	Watch
	1.42	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.68)	2.73 ↑ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilius Gaubas
65.9%

Luka Pavlovic
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55%

45%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.6%

41.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilius Gaubas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vilius Gaubas's performance.

Luka Pavlovic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Luka Pavlovic might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vilius Gaubas than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vilius Gaubas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luka Pavlovic than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luka Pavlovic could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Vilius Gaubas - Luka Pavlovic Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Gaubas will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Pavlovic will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Gaubas is ranked ATP: 128. Pavlovic is ranked ATP: 278.

Gaubas has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Pavlovic is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Pavlovic may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vilius Gaubas
ATP Estoril
21.07.26	Vilius Gaubas - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
18.07.26	Vilius Gaubas - Chun Hsin Tseng	Canceled ✺
ATP Bastad
13.07.26	Jesper De Jong - Vilius Gaubas	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
09.07.26	Vilius Gaubas - Facundo Diaz Acosta	0:2 ✺
07.07.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 L?LLW
- Luka Pavlovic
ATP Challenger
26.07.26	Matteo Martineau - Luka Pavlovic	1:2 ✺
25.07.26	Luka Pavlovic - Keegan Smith	2:0 ✺
24.07.26	Luka Pavlovic - Mert Alkaya	2:0 ✺
22.07.26	Yi Zhou - Luka Pavlovic	0:2 ✺
21.07.26	Takuya Kumasaka - Luka Pavlovic	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWWWW

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