Match Info

AFL - Round 18

Date: 10 July 2026, Friday

Location: Marvel Stadium (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 1
Australia	AFL TV
New-zealand	Sky Sport 6
United-kingdom	TNT Sports 3


	Collingwood Magpies		North Melbourne Kangaroos

	1	X	2
	1.38		3.1
	1.40	100.00	2.75
				Watch
	1.42	80.00	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.42)	60	2.9 (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 172.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-17)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Collingwood Magpies
66.4%

Draw
1.5%

North Melbourne Kangaroos
32.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

67.1%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.6%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Collingwood Magpies has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

North Melbourne Kangaroos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Collingwood Magpies than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for North Melbourne Kangaroos than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Collingwood Magpies - North Melbourne Kangaroos Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Collingwood will win (votes: 3 - 60%). North Melbourne will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 95:78

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (28 - 22)
01:16, Larkey N. (Behind),
02:12, Schultz L. (G),
05:20, Anderson A. (Behind),
06:25, Curtis P. (G),
08:17, McStay D. (G),
10:34, Stephens D. (Behind),
11:48, Pendlebury S. (Behind),
13:04, Larkey N. (Behind),
13:29, Membrey T. (G),
17:48, Larkey N. (Behind),
20:20, Larkey N. (G),
23:18, Daicos N. (Behind),
25:31, Trembath C. (G),
27:03, Pendlebury S. (G),
28:11, Long N. (Behind),
2nd Quarter (19 - 20)
02:21, Darling J. (G),
04:10, Banch Z. (G),
05:30, McStay D. (G),
08:48, Lipinski P. (G),
10:27, Curtis P. (G),
19:31, Swadling S. (G),
22:26, Houston D. (Behind),
24:12, O'Sullivan F. (Behind),
30:08, Banch Z. (Behind),
3rd Quarter (20 - 22)
03:27, Buller J. (Behind),
07:55, Simpkin J. (Behind),
10:06, Lipinski P. (G),
11:59, Cameron D. (G),
16:48, (Behind Rushed),
19:18, Spargo C. (G),
21:32, Swadling S. (Behind),
25:07, Sheezel H. (Behind),
26:00, Hardeman R. (G),
27:40, McStay D. (G),
28:53, Curtis P. (Behind),
29:25, Xerri T. (G),
4th Quarter (22 - 21)
00:17, Curtis P. (G),
02:09, Anderson A. (Behind),
04:05, Larkey N. (Behind),
05:48, Larkey N. (G),
08:11, Pendlebury S. (Behind),
09:30, Daicos N. (G),
12:08, Lipinski P. (Behind),
14:17, Larkey N. (G),
15:53, Darling J. (Behind),
21:44, Crisp J. (G),
23:49, Xerri T. (Behind),
26:59, Membrey T. (G),
30:59, Lipinski P. (Behind),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Collingwood won 5.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Collingwood is a strong favorite.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Collingwood won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1448:1211. (average 90.5:75.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Collingwood won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 828:733. (average 82.8:73.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Collingwood Magpies
AFL
04.07.26	Gold Coast Suns - Collingwood Magpies	98:104 ✺
27.06.26	Collingwood Magpies - Richmond Tigers	106:72 ✺
20.06.26	Collingwood Magpies - Port Adelaide Power	78:51 ✺
08.06.26	Collingwood Magpies - Melbourne Demons	75:83 ✺
30.05.26	Western Bulldogs - Collingwood Magpies	97:93 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWLL
- North Melbourne Kangaroos
AFL
05.07.26	Port Adelaide Power - North Melbourne Kangaroos	73:52 ✺
28.06.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Essendon Bombers	79:65 ✺
20.06.26	Richmond Tigers - North Melbourne Kangaroos	48:73 ✺
13.06.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - West Coast Eagles	74:73 ✺
06.06.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Fremantle Dockers	31:155 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

AFL
24.05.25	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Collingwood Magpies	63:108
15.06.24	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Collingwood Magpies	118:119
28.05.23	Collingwood Magpies - North Melbourne Kangaroos	105:70
08.07.22	Collingwood Magpies - North Melbourne Kangaroos	88:81
08.05.21	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Collingwood Magpies	76:94
24.08.20	Collingwood Magpies - North Melbourne Kangaroos	65:35
29.06.19	Collingwood Magpies - North Melbourne Kangaroos	37:81

Collingwood Magpies - North Melbourne Kangaroos: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide