Match Info
AFL - Round 11Date: 23 May 2025, FridayLocation: Melbourne Cricket Ground (Melbourne)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Africa | SupeSport ESPN 1 |
 Australia | AFL, Fox Footy, Seven Network |
 New-zealand | Sky Sport 5 |
 United-kingdom | TNT Sports 4 |
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Essendon Bombers |
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Richmond Tigers |
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1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.25 |
|
4.15 |
|
 |
1.24 |
|
3.56 |
|
 |
1.3 |
|
3.38 |
 Watch |
 |
1.25 |
|
3.75 |
|
 |
1.26 |
|
3.72 |
|
 |
1.24 |
|
3.56 |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.26 ↓
(1.32) |
|
3.69 ↑
(3.42) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 160.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-25)
- The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Essendon Bombers
74.6% | Richmond Tigers
25.4% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML EstimationAnalysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:Essendon Bombers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)Richmond Tigers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Essendon Bombers than the current prediction. (-6.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Essendon Bombers that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Richmond Tigers than the current prediction. (+6.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Richmond Tigers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Essendon Bombers - Richmond Tigers Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 93:68 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Quarter (13 - 8)
- 02:17, Martin N. (G),
- 12:29, Taranto T. (G),
- 16:00, (Behind Rushed),
- 22:00, Hopper J. (Behind),
- 24:17, Mansell R. (Behind),
- 25:31, Clarke A. (G),
- 2nd Quarter (27 - 23)
- 00:57, Lalor S. (G),
- 03:00, Green S. (Behind),
- 03:33, (Behind Rushed),
- 04:20, Ralphsmith H. (Behind),
- 06:15, Roberts A. (Behind),
- 07:33, Clarke A. (G),
- 10:14, Martin N. (G),
- 11:52, Faull J. (Behind),
- 13:00, Faull J. (G),
- 19:15, Caddy N. (Behind),
- 20:17, (Behind Rushed),
- 21:54, Ralphsmith H. (G),
- 24:44, Clarke A. (G),
- 30:30, Wright P. (Behind),
- 32:08, Durham S. (G),
- 3rd Quarter (22 - 19)
- 02:23, Caddy N. (G),
- 03:46, Mansell R. (G),
- 07:34, Merrett Z. (Behind),
- 09:00, Taranto T. (G),
- 12:36, (Behind Rushed),
- 16:05, Caddy N. (Behind),
- 17:07, Lalor S. (G),
- 19:58, Wright P. (G),
- 22:23, (Behind Rushed),
- 27:45, Guelfi M. (G),
- 31:14, (Behind Rushed),
- 4th Quarter (19 - 8)
- 00:53, Duursma X. (Behind),
- 04:18, Perkins A. (G),
- 08:15, Wright P. (Behind),
- 09:29, Durham S. (Behind),
- 10:29, Clarke A. (Behind),
- 13:46, Hobbs B. (Behind),
- 16:09, McAuliffe K. (Behind),
- 18:51, Wright P. (G),
- 21:57, Wright P. (Behind),
- 21:58, Duursma X. (Behind),
- 24:59, Mansell R. (Behind),
- 28:33, Ralphsmith H. (G),
Preview
A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 and 16).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Essendon won 2.Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game. In this match, Essendon is the team to beat.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Essendon won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 1365:1788. (average 68.3:89.4).Including home matches between the teams, Essendon won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 732:1068. (average 66.5:97.1).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| AFL | | | 25.05.24 | Richmond Tigers - Essendon Bombers | 74:86 | | 20.05.23 | Essendon Bombers - Richmond Tigers | 71:70 | | 20.08.22 | Essendon Bombers - Richmond Tigers | 75:141 | | 21.05.22 | Richmond Tigers - Essendon Bombers | 80:48 | | 05.06.21 | Essendon Bombers - Richmond Tigers | 84:123 | | 22.08.20 | Essendon Bombers - Richmond Tigers | 61:73 | | 25.05.19 | Richmond Tigers - Essendon Bombers | 73:50 |
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