Match Info

AFL - Round 7

Date: 25 April 2025, Friday

Location: Melbourne Cricket Ground (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 1
Australia	AFL, Stan Sport
United-kingdom	TNT Sports 1


	Collingwood Magpies		Essendon Bombers

	1	2
	1.25	4.15
	1.23	3.63
	1.21	4.19
	1.25	3.75
	1.26	3.72
	1.23	3.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.33)	3.85 ↑ (3.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 156.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-25)

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Collingwood Magpies
75.6%

Essendon Bombers
24.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

71.7%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.9%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Collingwood Magpies has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Essendon Bombers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Collingwood Magpies than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Collingwood Magpies that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Essendon Bombers than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Essendon Bombers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Collingwood Magpies - Essendon Bombers Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Collingwood will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Collingwood (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 91:66

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (22 - 7)
02:14, Daicos N. (G),
04:45, Membrey T. (G),
08:43, Wright P. (G),
10:19, Perryman H. (G),
13:23, Daicos N. (Behind),
15:59, Pendlebury S. (Behind),
20:20, Caddy N. (Behind),
23:39, Elliott J. (Behind),
24:10, (Behind Rushed),
2nd Quarter (19 - 26)
01:43, Martin N. (Behind),
02:36, Elliott J. (G),
03:42, Daicos N. (Behind),
06:33, Membrey T. (G),
09:30, Langford K. (G),
12:42, Durham S. (G),
14:06, Durham S. (G),
16:13, Perkins A. (G),
20:55, Merrett Z. (Behind),
23:04, Maynard B. (G),
3rd Quarter (34 - 18)
03:53, Caddy N. (G),
05:41, Kako I. (G),
07:58, Hill B. (Behind),
09:17, Hill B. (G),
13:54, Membrey T. (Behind),
15:37, Elliott J. (G),
17:00, Hobbs B. (G),
21:12, (Behind Rushed),
22:01, Elliott J. (G),
23:22, De Goey J. (G),
27:27, Long N. (G),
33:20, Pendlebury S. (Behind),
4th Quarter (32 - 15)
02:39, Wright P. (G),
04:57, Cameron D. (G),
07:06, Caddy N. (G),
09:47, (Behind Rushed),
11:33, De Goey J. (Behind),
12:53, Hill B. (Behind),
15:47, Elliott J. (G),
21:09, Caddy N. (Behind),
22:22, Caddy N. (Behind),
23:34, Hoskin-Elliott W. (G),
25:17, Elliott J. (G),
28:22, Mihocek B. (G),

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Collingwood won 3.

Collingwood in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Essendon is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Collingwood could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Collingwood is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Collingwood won 11 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 1663:1596 (average 83.2:79.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Collingwood won 6 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 979:913 (average 89:83).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Collingwood Magpies
AFL
17.04.25	Brisbane Lions - Collingwood Magpies	53:105 ✺
11.04.25	Collingwood Magpies - Sydney Swans	109:78 ✺
03.04.25	Collingwood Magpies - Carlton Blues	63:46 ✺
21.03.25	Western Bulldogs - Collingwood Magpies	70:76 ✺
15.03.25	Collingwood Magpies - Port Adelaide Power	136:45 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WWWWW
- Essendon Bombers
AFL
18.04.25	West Coast Eagles - Essendon Bombers	75:77 ✺
12.04.25	Melbourne Demons - Essendon Bombers	57:96 ✺
27.03.25	Essendon Bombers - Port Adelaide Power	72:60 ✺
21.03.25	Essendon Bombers - Adelaide Crows	100:161 ✺
14.03.25	Hawthorn Hawks - Essendon Bombers	111:85 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

AFL
05.07.24	Collingwood Magpies - Essendon Bombers	80:92
25.04.24	Essendon Bombers - Collingwood Magpies	85:85
25.08.23	Essendon Bombers - Collingwood Magpies	31:101
25.04.23	Collingwood Magpies - Essendon Bombers	90:77
24.07.22	Collingwood Magpies - Essendon Bombers	80:76
25.04.22	Essendon Bombers - Collingwood Magpies	82:93
22.08.21	Essendon Bombers - Collingwood Magpies	102:64

Collingwood Magpies - Essendon Bombers: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide