Match Info

AFL - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 11 September 2026, Friday

Location: Optus Stadium (Perth)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 1
Australia	AFL TV, Fox Footy
Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+
New-zealand	Sky Sport 5
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 1
Usa	FOX Sports 2


	Fremantle Dockers		Geelong Cats

	1	X	2
	1.5		2.6
	1.5		2.35
				Watch
	1.47		2.6
	1.53		2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.58)	↓	2.5 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 173.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-12)

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fremantle Dockers
62.5%

Geelong Cats
37.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58%

1.2%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

0.7%

65.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fremantle Dockers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Geelong Cats has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fremantle Dockers than the current prediction. (-26.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fremantle Dockers that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Geelong Cats than the current prediction. (+28.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Geelong Cats could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Fremantle Dockers - Geelong Cats Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Fremantle will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Geelong will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 93:81

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (38 - 13)
00:58, Bolton S. (G),
02:03, Bolton S. (G),
04:19, Voss P. (G),
05:42, Dangerfield P. (G),
11:12, Frederick M. (G),
13:58, Young H. (Behind),
15:23, Neale S. (Behind),
19:25, Dudley I. (Behind),
21:05, Voss P. (G),
23:36, Cox M. (G),
27:31, Wiltshire O. (G),
2nd Quarter (27 - 31)
01:01, Dudley I. (G),
04:26, Henry O. (G),
06:14, Neale S. (G),
08:11, Amiss J. (G),
09:21, Mannagh S. (G),
10:25, Young H. (G),
12:05, Treacy J. (Behind),
13:53, Cameron J. (G),
18:46, (Behind Rushed),
19:59, Blicavs M. (Behind),
21:22, Amiss J. (Behind),
28:30, Dudley I. (G),
30:56, Neale S. (G),
3rd Quarter (31 - 36)
01:15, Dangerfield P. (Behind),
02:18, Henry O. (G),
05:18, Dempsey O. (Behind),
06:32, Mullin O. (Behind),
10:18, Mannagh S. (Behind),
11:57, Mannagh S. (Behind),
13:50, Henry O. (Behind),
15:10, (Behind Rushed),
17:20, Henry O. (G),
19:43, Amiss J. (G),
21:27, Henry O. (G),
23:09, Dangerfield P. (G),
25:45, Cameron J. (G),
28:16, Jackson L. (G),
29:51, Treacy J. (G),
33:08, Voss P. (G),
35:24, Jackson L. (G),
4th Quarter (24 - 26)
03:23, Voss P. (Behind),
05:00, (Behind Rushed),
05:54, Frederick M. (G),
07:48, (Behind Rushed),
08:40, Dangerfield P. (Behind),
11:22, Dempsey O. (Behind),
12:26, Henry O. (G),
13:42, (Behind Rushed),
15:28, Serong C. (G),
16:43, Mannagh S. (G),
18:20, Neale S. (G),
20:14, (Behind Rushed),
21:28, Reid M. (Behind),
26:50, Stewart T. (G),
29:08, Voss P. (G),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fremantle won 2.

Fremantle has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Geelong is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Geelong may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Fremantle will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fremantle won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 1442:1694. (average 72.1:84.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Fremantle won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 722:777. (average 72.2:77.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fremantle Dockers
AFL
03.09.26	Fremantle Dockers - Hawthorn Hawks	40:72 ✺
21.08.26	Carlton Blues - Fremantle Dockers	119:82 ✺
14.08.26	Fremantle Dockers - Adelaide Crows	112:88 ✺
07.08.26	Melbourne Demons - Fremantle Dockers	113:109 ✺
31.07.26	Fremantle Dockers - Western Bulldogs	78:41 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLWLW
- Geelong Cats
AFL
04.09.26	Geelong Cats - Carlton Blues	107:74 ✺
22.08.26	Geelong Cats - Richmond Tigers	133:76 ✺
15.08.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Geelong Cats	110:125 ✺
08.08.26	Geelong Cats - Essendon Bombers	117:50 ✺
30.07.26	Collingwood Magpies - Geelong Cats	72:97 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

AFL
18.06.26	Fremantle Dockers - Geelong Cats	99:90
14.03.26	Geelong Cats - Fremantle Dockers	110:100
14.03.25	Geelong Cats - Fremantle Dockers	147:69
10.08.24	Fremantle Dockers - Geelong Cats	62:73
28.07.23	Geelong Cats - Fremantle Dockers	64:71
20.05.23	Fremantle Dockers - Geelong Cats	106:77
29.04.22	Geelong Cats - Fremantle Dockers	66:69

Fremantle Dockers - Geelong Cats: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide