Match Info

AFL - Round 23

Date: 15 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Marvel Stadium (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL TV, Fox Footy
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Sweden	HBO Max
United-kingdom	TNT Sports 7


	North Melbourne Kangaroos		Geelong Cats

	1	2
	3.1	1.38
	2.9	1.35
			Watch
	3	1.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↓ (3.6)	1.37 ↑ (1.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 178.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-18)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

North Melbourne Kangaroos
31.3%

Geelong Cats
68.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

26.5%

73.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29%

71%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

North Melbourne Kangaroos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Geelong Cats has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for North Melbourne Kangaroos than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Geelong Cats than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

North Melbourne Kangaroos - Geelong Cats Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 80:98

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (44 - 6)
00:25, Simpkin J. (G),
01:40, Darling J. (G),
11:39, Polkinghorne J. (G),
13:13, Darling J. (G),
14:48, Larkey N. (G),
22:39, Banch Z. (G),
24:19, Spargo C. (Behind),
26:29, Curtis P. (G),
28:06, Simpkin J. (G),
29:55, (Behind Rushed),
2nd Quarter (13 - 58)
00:51, Trembath C. (Behind),
04:00, Edwards M. (G),
05:23, Mannagh S. (G),
09:05, Neale S. (G),
11:11, Dempsey O. (Behind),
14:48, Blicavs M. (G),
17:17, Polkinghorne J. (G),
19:06, Neale S. (Behind),
19:49, Humphries L. (G),
21:25, Sheezel H. (G),
23:04, Mannagh S. (G),
25:10, Close B. (G),
26:52, Darling J. (G),
28:04, Dangerfield P. (Behind),
29:57, Edwards M. (G),
32:11, Worpel J. (Behind),
3rd Quarter (32 - 24)
02:30, (Behind Rushed),
03:54, Blicavs M. (G),
07:05, Mannagh S. (Behind),
08:47, Henry O. (Behind),
12:46, Larkey N. (G),
14:30, Dempsey O. (Behind),
15:28, Henry O. (G),
17:56, Davies-Uniacke L. (Behind),
18:51, Trembath C. (G),
20:02, Dangerfield P. (G),
22:55, Larkey N. (G),
24:37, Trembath C. (G),
25:41, Blicavs M. (Behind),
26:57, Mannagh S. (Behind),
28:21, Trembath C. (G),
30:54, Neale S. (Behind),
4th Quarter (21 - 37)
00:31, Blicavs M. (G),
02:14, (Behind Rushed),
04:20, Neale S. (G),
06:59, Dangerfield P. (G),
08:48, Banch Z. (Behind),
10:14, Darling J. (G),
11:25, Larkey N. (G),
21:01, Dempsey O. (G),
23:13, Polkinghorne J. (G),
26:44, Larkey N. (G),
28:38, Darling J. (Behind),
31:49, (Behind Rushed),
33:02, Mannagh S. (G),

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, North Melbourne won 0.

North Melbourne is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Geelong is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

North Melbourne may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Geelong is a strong favorite.

We predict that Geelong will win today's game, with odds of 1.33.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, North Melbourne won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 17 matches, and goals 1376:2095. (average 68.8:104.8).

Including home matches between the teams, North Melbourne won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 497:733. (average 71:104.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- North Melbourne Kangaroos
AFL
06.08.26	Western Bulldogs - North Melbourne Kangaroos	77:100 ✺
31.07.26	Hawthorn Hawks - North Melbourne Kangaroos	99:83 ✺
26.07.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - St Kilda Saints	62:93 ✺
18.07.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Melbourne Demons	76:92 ✺
10.07.26	Collingwood Magpies - North Melbourne Kangaroos	89:85 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLLLL
- Geelong Cats
AFL
08.08.26	Geelong Cats - Essendon Bombers	117:50 ✺
30.07.26	Collingwood Magpies - Geelong Cats	72:97 ✺
24.07.26	Melbourne Demons - Geelong Cats	97:117 ✺
16.07.26	Geelong Cats - St Kilda Saints	102:75 ✺
11.07.26	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Geelong Cats	86:73 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

AFL
02.05.26	Geelong Cats - North Melbourne Kangaroos	135:86
26.07.25	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Geelong Cats	49:150
26.07.24	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Geelong Cats	66:106
13.04.24	Geelong Cats - North Melbourne Kangaroos	139:64
08.07.23	Geelong Cats - North Melbourne Kangaroos	125:63
02.07.22	Geelong Cats - North Melbourne Kangaroos	144:32
23.04.22	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Geelong Cats	61:121

North Melbourne Kangaroos - Geelong Cats: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide