The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Collingwood Magpies 44.4%
Geelong Cats 55.6%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
45.5%
54.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
49.7%
50.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Collingwood Magpies has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)
Geelong Cats has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Collingwood Magpies than the current prediction. (+5.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Collingwood Magpies, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Geelong Cats than the current prediction. (-5.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Geelong Cats, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
77.8%
0%
22.2%
Collingwood Magpies - Geelong Cats Predictions
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Collingwood will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Geelong will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Confidence interval (95%) for Collingwood: 50.6% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 83:87
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Key Events of the Match
1st Quarter (8 - 32)
00:56, Neale S. (G),
02:57, Henry O. (Behind),
03:23, Pendlebury S. (Behind),
12:22, Dempsey O. (G),
14:33, Henry O. (Behind),
16:59, Henry O. (G),
20:58, McStay D. (G),
22:26, Dempsey O. (G),
24:57, Anderson A. (Behind),
30:14, Polkinghorne J. (G),
2nd Quarter (20 - 25)
01:10, Henry O. (G),
02:42, Blicavs M. (G),
07:46, Mannagh S. (G),
09:19, Miers G. (G),
12:05, (Behind Rushed),
13:39, Anderson A. (Behind),
17:48, West C. (Behind),
21:58, West C. (G),
26:08, Anderson A. (G),
29:45, McCreery B. (G),
3rd Quarter (20 - 8)
03:05, Neale S. (Behind),
04:23, (Behind Rushed),
07:00, (Behind Rushed),
10:31, McCreery B. (G),
12:37, Harrison H. (G),
18:20, Martin J. (G),
22:16, Clark J. (Behind),
25:58, McStay D. (G),
4th Quarter (24 - 32)
03:06, Neale S. (G),
04:25, McStay D. (G),
06:13, (Behind Rushed),
07:44, Polkinghorne J. (G),
09:35, Anderson A. (Behind),
14:04, Pendlebury S. (Behind),
15:59, Crisp J. (Behind),
16:35, Henry O. (G),
19:34, Daicos J. (Behind),
20:50, McStay D. (G),
22:18, Wiltshire O. (G),
24:10, Neale S. (Behind),
25:13, Polkinghorne J. (G),
28:10, Edwards M. (Behind),
30:20, McStay D. (G),
31:24, McCreery B. (Behind),
Preview
This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Collingwood won 2.
Collingwood is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
In recent matches, Geelong has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
We predict that Collingwood will win today's game, with odds of 2.16.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Collingwood won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 1580:1674. (average 79:83.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Collingwood won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 817:922. (average 74.3:83.8).
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