Match Info

AFL - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday

Location: GMHBA Stadium (Geelong)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL TV, Fox Footy
Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 4


	Geelong Cats		Carlton Blues

	1	X	2
	1.5		2.6
	1.52	75.00	2.40
				Watch
	1.54		2.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.58)	25 ↓ (75)	2.48 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 165.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-52)

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Geelong Cats
59.7%

Draw
3.6%

Carlton Blues
36.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58%

1.2%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

82.7%

0.8%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Geelong Cats has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Carlton Blues has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Geelong Cats than the current prediction. (+23%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Geelong Cats, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlton Blues than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Carlton Blues, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Geelong Cats - Carlton Blues Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Geelong will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Carlton will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Geelong (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB, 2Q - Geelong (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Geelong (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 109:57

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (11 - 27)
00:21, Ainsworth B. (Behind),
02:45, (Behind Rushed),
04:55, (Behind Rushed),
06:06, Kemp B. (Behind),
08:51, Acres B. (Behind),
10:11, Evans F. (G),
12:13, Smith B. (Behind),
14:24, (Behind Rushed),
15:31, Cottrell M. (G),
23:39, Neale S. (Behind),
24:53, Dangerfield P. (G),
27:20, Cripps P. (G),
29:04, Lord C. (G),
2nd Quarter (23 - 10)
01:05, Mullin O. (Behind),
03:58, (Behind Rushed),
06:34, Cottrell M. (Behind),
13:32, Hollands O. (G),
15:05, (Behind Rushed),
15:36, Miers G. (G),
17:31, Close B. (G),
19:01, Ainsworth B. (Behind),
20:37, Wiltshire O. (Behind),
21:21, (Behind Rushed),
23:36, Walsh S. (Behind),
26:22, Acres B. (Behind),
28:26, Holmes M. (G),
3rd Quarter (39 - 13)
00:41, Dempsey O. (Behind),
00:54, Mannagh S. (G),
03:50, Kemp B. (G),
07:31, Dempsey O. (Behind),
08:37, McKay H. (G),
10:29, Dangerfield P. (G),
12:59, (Behind Rushed),
14:36, Henry O. (G),
18:10, Miers G. (G),
20:55, Wiltshire O. (Behind),
26:32, Neale S. (G),
29:41, Polkinghorne J. (G),
4th Quarter (34 - 24)
01:16, Neale S. (G),
04:51, (Behind Rushed),
06:54, Dangerfield P. (G),
08:56, Dangerfield P. (G),
10:45, Evans F. (G),
12:00, Dangerfield P. (G),
14:40, Close B. (Behind),
15:30, Wiltshire O. (Behind),
16:25, Close B. (Behind),
17:25, Dangerfield P. (Behind),
18:40, Polkinghorne J. (Behind),
20:53, Kemp B. (G),
23:27, Smith B. (Behind),
24:23, (Behind Rushed),
24:56, Edwards M. (Behind),
26:56, Lord C. (G),
29:00, Ainsworth B. (G),
30:47, Henry O. (Behind),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Geelong won 1.

Both teams have triumphed in their latest matches.

Carlton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Geelong could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Geelong will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Geelong won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 1636:1397. (average 90.9:77.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Geelong won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 763:558. (average 109:79.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Geelong Cats
AFL
22.08.26	Geelong Cats - Richmond Tigers	133:76 ✺
15.08.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Geelong Cats	110:125 ✺
08.08.26	Geelong Cats - Essendon Bombers	117:50 ✺
30.07.26	Collingwood Magpies - Geelong Cats	72:97 ✺
24.07.26	Melbourne Demons - Geelong Cats	97:117 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWWWW
- Carlton Blues
AFL
29.08.26	Melbourne Demons - Carlton Blues	55:74 ✺
21.08.26	Carlton Blues - Fremantle Dockers	119:82 ✺
16.08.26	Western Bulldogs - Carlton Blues	82:82 ✺
09.08.26	St Kilda Saints - Carlton Blues	62:106 ✺
01.08.26	Carlton Blues - Brisbane Lions	154:78 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

AFL
29.05.26	Carlton Blues - Geelong Cats	88:84
27.04.25	Carlton Blues - Geelong Cats	94:76
21.06.24	Carlton Blues - Geelong Cats	138:75
27.04.24	Geelong Cats - Carlton Blues	118:105
23.03.23	Carlton Blues - Geelong Cats	90:82
16.07.22	Carlton Blues - Geelong Cats	55:85
10.07.21	Carlton Blues - Geelong Cats	44:70

Geelong Cats - Carlton Blues: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide