Match Info

AFL - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 19 September 2025, Friday

Location: Melbourne Cricket Ground (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Fox Footy


	Geelong Cats		Hawthorn Hawks

	1	2
	1.56	2.5
	1.48	2.4
			Watch
	1.51	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.65)	2.47 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 163.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-11)

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Geelong Cats
61.9%

Hawthorn Hawks
38.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

57.7%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.3%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Geelong Cats has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Hawthorn Hawks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Geelong Cats than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Geelong Cats that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hawthorn Hawks than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hawthorn Hawks could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Geelong will win (votes: 1 - 50%). Hawthorn will win (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 88:77

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (9 - 22)
03:27, Lewis M. (G),
09:09, (Behind Rushed),
10:19, Lewis M. (Behind),
10:56, Ginnivan J. (G),
14:00, (Behind Rushed),
17:54, Weddle J. (Behind),
19:52, Nash C. (G),
23:18, (Behind Rushed),
28:42, Dangerfield P. (G),
30:05, Close B. (Behind),
31:04, Miers G. (Behind),
2nd Quarter (34 - 20)
02:00, (Behind Rushed),
02:37, (Behind Rushed),
04:17, Neale S. (G),
06:16, Blicavs M. (G),
09:00, Lewis M. (G),
11:54, Lewis M. (G),
14:27, Mannagh S. (G),
18:16, Watson N. (G),
21:04, Cameron J. (G),
23:57, Martin J. (Behind),
26:01, Stengle T. (G),
28:40, Cameron J. (Behind),
30:07, Dempsey O. (Behind),
31:15, Bowes J. (Behind),
3rd Quarter (46 - 19)
00:37, Stengle T. (G),
03:33, Dangerfield P. (G),
05:43, Holmes M. (G),
07:13, Smith B. (Behind),
08:39, Cameron J. (G),
12:52, Gunston J. (G),
14:43, Macdonald C. (G),
17:51, Dempsey O. (Behind),
19:31, Impey J. (G),
21:56, (Behind Rushed),
22:53, Martin J. (G),
30:08, Cameron J. (G),
31:44, Mannagh S. (G),
33:56, Gunston J. (Behind),
35:02, Close B. (Behind),
4th Quarter (26 - 24)
01:00, Gunston J. (G),
02:46, (Behind Rushed),
04:50, Dangerfield P. (G),
07:14, Miers G. (G),
12:34, Moore D. (G),
14:14, Gunston J. (G),
16:10, Cameron J. (Behind),
18:13, Chol M. (G),
20:01, Stengle T. (G),
25:58, Smith B. (G),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Geelong won 4.

Geelong has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Hawthorn is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Hawthorn may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Geelong might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Geelong will win today's game, with odds of 1.49.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Geelong won 11 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 1768:1568. (average 88.4:78.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Geelong won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1052:872. (average 95.6:79.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Geelong Cats
AFL
05.09.25	Geelong Cats - Brisbane Lions	112:74 ✺
23.08.25	Richmond Tigers - Geelong Cats	64:103 ✺
17.08.25	Sydney Swans - Geelong Cats	68:111 ✺
08.08.25	Geelong Cats - Essendon Bombers	109:65 ✺
03.08.25	Geelong Cats - Port Adelaide Power	153:65 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWWWW
- Hawthorn Hawks
AFL
12.09.25	Adelaide Crows - Hawthorn Hawks	67:101 ✺
06.09.25	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Hawthorn Hawks	88:107 ✺
24.08.25	Brisbane Lions - Hawthorn Hawks	89:79 ✺
16.08.25	Hawthorn Hawks - Melbourne Demons	92:56 ✺
07.08.25	Hawthorn Hawks - Collingwood Magpies	110:46 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

AFL
21.04.25	Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks	86:79
06.07.24	Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks	110:59
01.04.24	Hawthorn Hawks - Geelong Cats	70:106
10.04.23	Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks	127:45
18.04.22	Hawthorn Hawks - Geelong Cats	92:80
05.04.21	Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks	69:64
12.06.20	Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks	108:47

Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide