Match Info

AFL - Round 23

Date: 17 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Sydney Cricket Ground (Sydney)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL, Fox Sports 503
United-kingdom	Discovery+, TNT Sports 3


	Sydney Swans		Geelong Cats

	1	2
	3.3	1.36
	2.79	1.37
	3.10	1.32	Watch
	3	1.36
	3.23	1.34
	3.35	1.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.13 ↓ (3.37)	1.35 ↑ (1.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 171.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-19)

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sydney Swans
30.1%

Geelong Cats
69.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

28.3%

71.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.1%

65.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sydney Swans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Geelong Cats has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sydney Swans than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Geelong Cats than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Sydney Swans - Geelong Cats Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Geelong (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Geelong (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Geelong Cats will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Geelong (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 77:96

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (27 - 27)
00:20, Stengle T. (Behind),
01:17, McLean H. (G),
04:36, Heeney I. (G),
06:16, McLean H. (Behind),
07:43, Campbell B. (G),
10:45, Ladhams P. (Behind),
14:29, Heeney I. (Behind),
17:36, Mannagh S. (Behind),
19:43, Neale S. (G),
22:01, Humphries L. (Behind),
22:32, Martin J. (G),
25:00, Miers G. (G),
27:31, Neale S. (G),
29:53, Ladhams P. (G),
2nd Quarter (19 - 28)
02:05, Buller J. (G),
06:29, McCartin T. (G),
07:35, Holmes M. (Behind),
08:58, Neale S. (G),
12:08, (Behind Rushed),
13:19, Neale S. (G),
15:48, Mannagh S. (Behind),
18:19, Dempsey O. (Behind),
22:30, (Behind Rushed),
25:21, Martin J. (G),
29:17, Stengle T. (G),
31:10, McLean H. (G),
3rd Quarter (8 - 25)
01:07, Stengle T. (G),
05:01, Buller J. (Behind),
06:05, Mannagh S. (G),
10:40, Ladhams P. (G),
12:34, Dangerfield P. (G),
16:37, Dempsey O. (G),
19:50, Blicavs M. (Behind),
26:22, Papley T. (Behind),
4th Quarter (14 - 31)
00:39, Stengle T. (G),
02:47, Lloyd J. (Behind),
03:44, Blicavs M. (Behind),
04:41, Papley T. (G),
06:35, Mannagh S. (G),
08:25, Dangerfield P. (Behind),
15:23, Mannagh S. (Behind),
16:26, Mannagh S. (G),
17:34, Miers G. (G),
20:53, Martin J. (Behind),
22:16, Stengle T. (Behind),
23:33, (Behind Rushed),
25:06, Neale S. (Behind),
26:26, Papley T. (G),
30:30, Cameron J. (Behind),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sydney won 2.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Sydney may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Geelong is considered a favorite.

We predict that Sydney will win today's game, with odds of 3.21.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sydney won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 10 matches, and goals 1626:1670. (average 81.3:83.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Sydney won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 936:787. (average 93.6:78.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sydney Swans
AFL
09.08.25	Brisbane Lions - Sydney Swans	90:92 ✺
02.08.25	Sydney Swans - Essendon Bombers	68:54 ✺
25.07.25	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Sydney Swans	102:58 ✺
19.07.25	Sydney Swans - North Melbourne Kangaroos	84:53 ✺
13.07.25	St Kilda Saints - Sydney Swans	87:92 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWLWW
- Geelong Cats
AFL
08.08.25	Geelong Cats - Essendon Bombers	109:65 ✺
03.08.25	Geelong Cats - Port Adelaide Power	153:65 ✺
26.07.25	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Geelong Cats	49:150 ✺
19.07.25	Geelong Cats - St Kilda Saints	113:82 ✺
12.07.25	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Geelong Cats	111:85 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

AFL
09.06.24	Sydney Swans - Geelong Cats	112:82
30.06.23	Sydney Swans - Geelong Cats	54:54
22.04.23	Geelong Cats - Sydney Swans	130:37
24.09.22	Geelong Cats - Sydney Swans	133:52
25.03.22	Sydney Swans - Geelong Cats	107:77
01.05.21	Sydney Swans - Geelong Cats	90:88
20.09.20	Sydney Swans - Geelong Cats	63:69

Sydney Swans - Geelong Cats: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide