The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Hawthorn Hawks 45.6%
Draw 3.6%
Brisbane Lions 50.8%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
48.1%
1.2%
50.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
34.8%
0.9%
70%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Hawthorn Hawks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)
Brisbane Lions has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hawthorn Hawks than the current prediction. (-10.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hawthorn Hawks that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brisbane Lions than the current prediction. (+19.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brisbane Lions could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
33.3%
0%
66.7%
Hawthorn Hawks - Brisbane Lions Predictions
Users Predictions:
3 users predict this event. Hawthorn will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Brisbane will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 114:73
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Key Events of the Match
1st Quarter (31 - 32)
01:36, Watson N. (G),
03:00, Cameron C. (G),
05:51, Watson N. (G),
09:43, Ashcroft L. (G),
11:30, Lewis M. (G),
13:19, Lewis M. (G),
16:55, Fort D. (Behind),
20:56, Hipwood E. (Behind),
21:40, Ashcroft W. (G),
23:02, Hipwood E. (G),
27:13, Gunston J. (G),
29:21, McKenna C. (G),
33:49, Newcombe J. (Behind),
2nd Quarter (36 - 21)
00:44, Sicily J. (G),
03:13, Gunston J. (G),
04:47, Cameron C. (G),
07:38, Morris L. (Behind),
09:41, Lewis M. (G),
13:17, Gunston J. (G),
19:43, Weddle J. (G),
23:49, Hipwood E. (Behind),
26:15, Lohmann K. (G),
27:28, Cameron C. (G),
28:59, McCluggage H. (Behind),
31:47, Watson N. (G),
3rd Quarter (10 - 44)
02:22, Newcombe J. (Behind),
03:24, D'Ambrosio M. (Behind),
04:11, Gunston J. (Behind),
06:17, McCluggage H. (Behind),
06:53, Berry J. (G),
11:15, Watson N. (G),
13:00, Hipwood E. (G),
15:30, McCluggage H. (G),
17:05, Lohmann K. (G),
19:34, Watson N. (Behind),
21:51, Lohmann K. (Behind),
22:26, Hipwood E. (G),
24:11, Lohmann K. (G),
27:16, Lohmann K. (G),
4th Quarter (45 - 34)
01:26, Morris L. (G),
02:49, Morris L. (Behind),
03:56, Bailey Z. (Behind),
05:23, Moore D. (G),
07:13, Moore D. (Behind),
08:47, Cameron C. (Behind),
09:34, Morris L. (G),
11:57, Chol M. (G),
13:25, Gunston J. (G),
14:31, Watson N. (Behind),
16:41, (Behind Rushed),
18:24, Watson N. (G),
19:59, Gunston J. (G),
22:40, Watson N. (G),
26:34, (Behind Rushed),
27:31, McCluggage H. (G),
29:45, Lewis M. (G),
34:48, McCluggage H. (G),
36:16, Lohmann K. (G),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hawthorn won 2.
Currently, both sides are showing commendable stability on the pitch.
Brisbane may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.
Our forecast points to a victory for Brisbane in today's match, at odds of 1.79.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Hawthorn has recorded 11 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1682:1610 (averaging 84.1:80.5 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Hawthorn against this opponent, the record stands at 10 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 1211:993 goals (averaging 93.2:76.4 per game).
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