Match Info

AFL - Round 16

Date: 26 June 2026, Friday

Location: Melbourne Cricket Ground (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL TV


	Hawthorn Hawks		Greater Western Sydney Giants

	1	X	2
	1.28		3.75
	1.3		3.2
				Watch
	1.36	81.00	2.90
	1.31		3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.36)	20.25	3.3 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 169.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-20)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hawthorn Hawks
68.4%

Draw
4.4%

Greater Western Sydney Giants
27.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

70.2%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.7%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hawthorn Hawks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Greater Western Sydney Giants has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hawthorn Hawks than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Greater Western Sydney Giants than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Hawthorn Hawks - Greater Western Sydney Giants Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 95:75

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (23 - 16)
01:13, (Behind Rushed),
02:39, Dalton J. (G),
03:56, D'Ambrosio M. (Behind),
08:07, Greene T. (Behind),
09:18, Ash L. (G),
10:28, Watson N. (Behind),
12:31, (Behind Rushed),
14:07, Dear C. (G),
15:16, Coniglio S. (G),
17:21, Gruzewski M. (Behind),
18:46, Macdonald C. (G),
21:31, Mackenzie C. (Behind),
29:05, Greene T. (Behind),
31:20, Bedford T. (Behind),
2nd Quarter (37 - 14)
03:54, Greene T. (G),
06:24, Ginnivan J. (G),
11:47, Gothard P. (Behind),
13:25, Gruzewski M. (Behind),
16:57, Watson N. (G),
21:48, Mackenzie C. (G),
23:02, Ginnivan J. (G),
27:48, Watson N. (G),
29:31, Watson N. (G),
32:05, Brown C. (G),
34:12, Chol M. (Behind),
3rd Quarter (27 - 36)
01:14, Lewis M. (G),
03:16, Chol M. (G),
06:50, Dear C. (Behind),
08:46, Greene T. (G),
12:17, Brown C. (G),
14:09, Macdonald C. (Behind),
15:22, Brown C. (G),
17:34, Cadman A. (G),
20:08, Dalton J. (G),
24:08, D'Ambrosio M. (Behind),
26:29, Callaghan F. (G),
29:12, Lewis M. (G),
31:24, Cadman A. (G),
4th Quarter (9 - 16)
05:19, Angwin R. (Behind),
07:06, (Behind Rushed),
08:08, Chol M. (G),
10:34, Stringer J. (Behind),
11:57, Amon K. (Behind),
13:48, (Behind Rushed),
22:26, Oliver C. (G),
27:17, Stringer J. (Behind),
28:07, Stringer J. (G),
30:20, Moore D. (Behind),

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hawthorn won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

GWS may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Hawthorn is a strong favorite.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Hawthorn won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 1533:1495. (average 80.7:78.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Hawthorn won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 563:422. (average 80.4:60.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hawthorn Hawks
AFL
19.06.26	Gold Coast Suns - Hawthorn Hawks	97:113 ✺
05.06.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Western Bulldogs	71:77 ✺
28.05.26	St Kilda Saints - Hawthorn Hawks	67:119 ✺
21.05.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Adelaide Crows	75:66 ✺
16.05.26	Melbourne Demons - Hawthorn Hawks	120:81 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLWWL
- Greater Western Sydney Giants
AFL
20.06.26	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Carlton Blues	65:88 ✺
14.06.26	St Kilda Saints - Greater Western Sydney Giants	96:88 ✺
31.05.26	Melbourne Demons - Greater Western Sydney Giants	70:119 ✺
23.05.26	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Brisbane Lions	166:88 ✺
17.05.26	West Coast Eagles - Greater Western Sydney Giants	88:71 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

AFL
07.03.26	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Hawthorn Hawks	122:95
06.09.25	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Hawthorn Hawks	88:107
29.03.25	Hawthorn Hawks - Greater Western Sydney Giants	76:64
03.08.24	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Hawthorn Hawks	84:82
07.06.24	Hawthorn Hawks - Greater Western Sydney Giants	85:79
08.07.23	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Hawthorn Hawks	85:72
16.04.23	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Hawthorn Hawks	77:75

Hawthorn Hawks - Greater Western Sydney Giants: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide