Match Info

AUSTRALIA: AFL - ROUND 19

Date: 23 July 2023, Sunday

Location: Melbourne Cricket Ground (Melbourne)


	Melbourne Demons		Adelaide Crows

	1	2
	1.28	3.85
	1.28	3.49
	1.29	3.6
	1.22	4.15
	1.26	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↓ (1.38)	3.72 ↑ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 166.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-24)

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Demons
74.6%

Adelaide Crows
25.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

68.2%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3%

39.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Demons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Melbourne Demons's performance.

Adelaide Crows has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Adelaide Crows might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Demons than the current prediction. (-14.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Melbourne Demons that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Adelaide Crows than the current prediction. (+14.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Adelaide Crows could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Melbourne Demons - Adelaide Crows Predictions

Users Predictions: Melbourne Demons will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 95:71

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Melbourne won 4.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Adelaide could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Melbourne is a favorite.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Melbourne won 8 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 1341-1272.

Including matches at home between the teams Melbourne won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 690-664.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Demons
AFL
14.07.23	Melbourne Demons - Brisbane Lions	105:104 ✺
08.07.23	St Kilda Saints - Melbourne Demons	58:79 ✺
02.07.23	Melbourne Demons - Greater Western Sydney Giants	45:47 ✺
22.06.23	Geelong Cats - Melbourne Demons	78:63 ✺
12.06.23	Melbourne Demons - Collingwood Magpies	66:62 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWLLW
- Adelaide Crows
AFL
15.07.23	Adelaide Crows - Greater Western Sydney Giants	57:71 ✺
09.07.23	Essendon Bombers - Adelaide Crows	115:97 ✺
30.06.23	Adelaide Crows - North Melbourne Kangaroos	138:72 ✺
24.06.23	Collingwood Magpies - Adelaide Crows	82:80 ✺
10.06.23	Adelaide Crows - West Coast Eagles	174:52 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

AFL
02.07.22	Adelaide Crows - Melbourne Demons	65:94
15.08.21	Melbourne Demons - Adelaide Crows	104:63
22.05.21	Adelaide Crows - Melbourne Demons	96:95
05.08.20	Adelaide Crows - Melbourne Demons	37:88
AAMI Community Series
22.02.20	Melbourne Demons - Adelaide Crows	103:70
AFL
01.06.19	Melbourne Demons - Adelaide Crows	88:90
28.07.18	Adelaide Crows - Melbourne Demons	77:90

Melbourne Demons - Adelaide Crows: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide