Match Info

AFL - Round 24

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Melbourne Cricket Ground (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL TV
New-zealand	Sky Sport Select
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 2


	Melbourne Demons		Western Bulldogs

	1	X	2
	1.44		2.8
	1.42	100.00	2.65
				Watch
	1.45		2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.5)	33.33	2.72 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 186.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-15)

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Demons
63.6%

Draw
2.7%

Western Bulldogs
33.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

63.4%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.4%

40.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Demons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Western Bulldogs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Demons than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Western Bulldogs than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Western Bulldogs could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Melbourne Demons - Western Bulldogs Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Melbourne will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Western will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 101:86

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (20 - 34)
01:26, Kennedy M. (G),
02:51, (Behind Rushed),
05:08, Freijah J. (G),
07:16, Jones A. (G),
09:09, (Behind Rushed),
11:45, Sanders R. (Behind),
13:35, Freijah J. (Behind),
15:54, Langdon E. (G),
18:32, Petty H. (G),
20:03, Weightman C. (G),
21:38, Naughton A. (Behind),
25:16, West R. (Behind),
26:55, Richards E. (G),
30:35, Fritsch B. (G),
2nd Quarter (16 - 13)
01:12, Laurie B. (Behind),
03:56, Jones A. (G),
05:31, McDonald T. (G),
13:02, Sharp H. (Behind),
16:21, Petty H. (Behind),
18:49, (Behind Rushed),
24:24, (Behind Rushed),
28:05, Naughton A. (G),
30:05, Petty H. (G),
3rd Quarter (18 - 22)
00:54, Petty H. (Behind),
02:05, (Behind Rushed),
04:27, West R. (G),
06:27, (Behind Rushed),
08:20, Naughton A. (G),
09:28, Bontempelli M. (G),
13:59, Weightman C. (Behind),
18:10, Hynes C. (Behind),
20:03, Pickett K. (G),
21:18, Laurie B. (Behind),
23:30, Windsor C. (G),
25:09, Lobb R. (Behind),
26:59, Jefferson M. (Behind),
31:12, Fritsch B. (Behind),
33:48, Salem C. (Behind),
4th Quarter (33 - 39)
00:21, Hynes C. (G),
01:24, Pickett K. (Behind),
02:36, Turner D. (Behind),
03:38, Hynes C. (G),
05:47, Chandler K. (G),
08:34, Freijah J. (Behind),
09:43, Jones A. (G),
11:22, Petty H. (G),
12:57, Petty H. (Behind),
16:48, Gardner R. (G),
18:26, McDonald T. (G),
19:31, Langford H. (G),
21:02, Weightman C. (Behind),
22:46, Fritsch B. (G),
25:12, Kennedy M. (G),
28:51, Bontempelli M. (G),
30:26, Davidson S. (Behind),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 2.

Melbourne is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Western's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Western may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Melbourne could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Melbourne will win today's game, with odds of 1.43.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 1779:1677. (average 89:83.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 826:639. (average 103.3:79.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Demons
AFL
15.08.26	Port Adelaide Power - Melbourne Demons	56:132 ✺
07.08.26	Melbourne Demons - Fremantle Dockers	113:109 ✺
02.08.26	Gold Coast Suns - Melbourne Demons	105:114 ✺
24.07.26	Melbourne Demons - Geelong Cats	97:117 ✺
18.07.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Melbourne Demons	76:92 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWWLW
- Western Bulldogs
AFL
16.08.26	Western Bulldogs - Carlton Blues	82:82 ✺
06.08.26	Western Bulldogs - North Melbourne Kangaroos	77:100 ✺
31.07.26	Fremantle Dockers - Western Bulldogs	78:41 ✺
25.07.26	Western Bulldogs - Richmond Tigers	105:48 ✺
19.07.26	Gold Coast Suns - Western Bulldogs	68:77 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

AFL
24.05.26	Western Bulldogs - Melbourne Demons	93:90
10.08.25	Melbourne Demons - Western Bulldogs	99:105
02.08.24	Western Bulldogs - Melbourne Demons	110:59
16.03.24	Melbourne Demons - Western Bulldogs	109:64
18.03.23	Melbourne Demons - Western Bulldogs	115:65
23.07.22	Western Bulldogs - Melbourne Demons	110:100
16.03.22	Melbourne Demons - Western Bulldogs	97:71

Melbourne Demons - Western Bulldogs: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide