The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Melbourne Demons 49.2%
Geelong Cats 50.8%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
46.5%
53.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
39.3%
60.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Melbourne Demons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)
Geelong Cats has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Demons than the current prediction. (-9.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Melbourne Demons that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Geelong Cats than the current prediction. (+9.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Geelong Cats could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Melbourne Demons - Geelong Cats Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 87:89
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Key Events of the Match
1st Quarter (28 - 18)
02:09, Pickett K. (G),
03:20, Petty H. (G),
04:56, Polkinghorne J. (G),
07:34, Neale S. (G),
09:38, Tholstrup K. (G),
12:40, Chandler K. (Behind),
14:25, Langdon E. (Behind),
17:27, Fritsch B. (G),
23:37, Jefferson M. (Behind),
26:50, Neale S. (G),
28:46, Pickett L. (Behind),
2nd Quarter (16 - 46)
00:37, Close B. (Behind),
02:25, Cooke L. (Behind),
04:13, Neale S. (G),
06:00, Atkins T. (G),
10:11, Fritsch B. (Behind),
11:17, Laurie B. (G),
12:22, Chandler K. (Behind),
15:40, Close B. (G),
17:39, Petty H. (G),
18:59, Mannagh S. (G),
21:07, Laurie B. (Behind),
23:35, Wiltshire O. (Behind),
25:26, Neale S. (G),
26:50, Polkinghorne J. (Behind),
28:20, Blicavs M. (Behind),
29:59, Henry O. (G),
33:07, Wiltshire O. (G),
3rd Quarter (19 - 17)
01:42, Neale S. (Behind),
04:39, Miers G. (Behind),
05:29, Fritsch B. (G),
12:20, (Behind Rushed),
13:23, Langford H. (G),
15:24, Henry O. (G),
16:34, Neale S. (Behind),
19:30, Mannagh S. (Behind),
19:52, Humphries L. (Behind),
23:21, Fritsch B. (G),
28:41, Polkinghorne J. (G),
4th Quarter (34 - 36)
01:00, Langdon E. (G),
03:16, Sharp H. (Behind),
06:35, Wiltshire O. (G),
08:42, Petty H. (G),
11:46, Henry O. (G),
13:34, Jefferson M. (Behind),
16:23, O'Connor M. (G),
18:10, Jefferson M. (Behind),
18:45, Petty H. (G),
20:38, Wiltshire O. (G),
22:41, Neale S. (G),
23:51, Henry O. (G),
26:45, Petty H. (Behind),
29:00, Langdon E. (G),
30:45, Langdon E. (G),
Preview
One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 2.
Melbourne is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Geelong has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Geelong may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
We predict that Melbourne will win today's game, with odds of 1.82.
In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 1214:1485. (average 67.4:82.5).
Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 533:460. (average 76.1:65.7).
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