Match Info

NBL - Round 19

Date: 30 January 2026, Friday

Location: Spark Arena (Auckland)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ESPN, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports


	New Zealand Breakers		Melbourne United

	1	2
			Watch
	2.6	1.45
	2.81	1.44
	2.57	1.46	Watch
	2.63	1.44
	2.77	1.47	Watch
	2.95	1.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↑ (2.5)	1.45 ↓ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 181.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

New Zealand Breakers
34.7%

Melbourne United
65.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.3%

61.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

57.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

New Zealand Breakers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Melbourne United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for New Zealand Breakers than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for New Zealand Breakers, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne United than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Melbourne United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

New Zealand Breakers - Melbourne United Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. NZ Breakers (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 182.5, OT - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 184.5, OT - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -6.5, OT - Melbourne (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. NZ Breakers (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Melbourne (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 89:94

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
8. Brockington I.	4. Daniels D.
6. Jackson-Cartwright P. (C)	7. Delany F.
15. Loe R.	14. Edwards J.
1. Lopez K.	43. Goulding C. (C)
7. Te Rangi R.	2. Walker T.
Substitutes
20. Andrew J.	15. Bowen K.
2. Bairstow S.	35. Doyle M.
5. Britt T.	51. Ili S.
12. Darling M.	30. Koppens T.
21. Davison C.	13. Krebs T.
67. Judd L.	18. Krslovic F.
0. McNaught A.	9. Machar M.
90. Webster T.	12. Wilson T.
Coaches
. Koponen P.	. Vickerman D.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, NZ Breakers won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Melbourne might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, NZ Breakers won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 1653:1804. (average 82.7:90.2).

Including home matches between the teams, NZ Breakers won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 817:850. (average 81.7:85).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		PCT
4	New Zealand Breakers	8	4	4	737:712	0.500
7	Melbourne United	7	3	4	647:630	0.429

Outrights of Australian NBL for now

Melbourne United: 24.79% New Zealand Breakers: 4.11%

Last Results with these Odds

New Zealand Breakers - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 38.27%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- New Zealand Breakers
Australian NBL
23.01.26	New Zealand Breakers - Adelaide 36ers	110:112 OT ✺
21.01.26	South East Melbourne Phoenix - New Zealand Breakers	123:116 ✺
17.01.26	Cairns Taipans - New Zealand Breakers	86:104 ✺
10.01.26	Illawarra Hawks - New Zealand Breakers	96:101 ✺
09.01.26	New Zealand Breakers - Sydney Kings	62:103 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLWWL
- Melbourne United
Australian NBL
25.01.26	Perth Wildcats - Melbourne United	73:74 ✺
21.01.26	Melbourne United - Brisbane Bullets	98:66 ✺
17.01.26	Melbourne United - Tasmania JackJumpers	79:77 ✺
11.01.26	Sydney Kings - Melbourne United	97:94 ✺
07.01.26	Melbourne United - Cairns Taipans	92:93 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NBL
18.10.25	Melbourne United - New Zealand Breakers	104:88
21.09.25	Melbourne United - New Zealand Breakers	114:82
13.01.25	New Zealand Breakers - Melbourne United	89:91
05.12.24	New Zealand Breakers - Melbourne United	70:96
04.11.24	Melbourne United - New Zealand Breakers	79:113
10.02.24	Melbourne United - New Zealand Breakers	94:81
12.01.24	New Zealand Breakers - Melbourne United	81:82

Upcoming Matches