Match Info

KHL

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Barys Arena (Astana)


	Barys Astana		Severstal Cherepovets

	1	X	2
	3.52	4.32	1.88	Watch
	3.4	4	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.46 ↑ (3.35)	4.16 ↓ (4.33)	1.89 (1.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barys Astana
27.3%

Draw
22.7%

Severstal Cherepovets
50%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.2%

21.8%

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.1%

22.5%

48.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barys Astana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

The chances for Severstal Cherepovets have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barys Astana than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Severstal Cherepovets than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

Barys Astana - Severstal Cherepovets Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Barys will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Severstal will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
41. Scheel A. (G)	29. Samoilov A. (G)
71. Daniyar Sam.	32. Gregoire T.
2. Massie J. (A)	8. Kaldis Y.
70. Simonov S.	88. Dumbadze D. (A)
11. Morelli M.	66. Podshivalov I. (A)
10. Willman M.	18. Veryayev D.
Line 2
44. Walsh R.	7. Burenov N.
3. McCoshen I.	21. Kamalov N.
13. Kaiyrzhan D.	51. Kvochko I.
9. Thompson T.	53. Aimurzin D.
84. Savitsky K. (C)	99. Ilyin M.
Line 3
19. Orazov B.	73. Zhukov A.
87. Beketayev A. (A)	2. Grudinin V.
22. Panyukov K.	42. Tankov K.
12. Logvin V.	17. Abrosimov R. (C)
96. Asetov A.	90. Chefanov I.
Line 4
24. Breus D.	77. Fomin M.
29. Lyapunov K.	81. Kazulayev D.
17. Omirbekov A.	6. Ivantsov I.
23. Mukhametov M.	12. Skorenov A.
Substitutes
43. Shutov A. (G)	85. Okunev I.
	1. Shostak K. (G)
Coaches
. Kravets M.	. Kozyrev A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
02:44, Lyapunov K. (2 min),
07:47, Logvin V. (2 min),
08:45, 0 - 1, Aimurzin D. (G), Skorenov A. (A), Ilyin M. (A2)
09:05, Mukhametov M. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 0)
04:01, Thompson T. (2 min),
09:52, Kamalov N. (2 min),
13:10, (2 min),
3rd Period (2 - 1)
03:40, 0 - 2, Tankov K. (G), Kaldis Y. (A), Chefanov I. (A2)
05:28, Zhukov A. (2 min),
09:54, Morelli M. (2 min),
12:13, 1 - 2, Logvin V. (G), Asetov A. (A),
12:34, 2 - 2, Morelli M. (G), Simonov S. (A),
15:11, Zhukov A. (2 min),
19:05, Willman M. (Penalty Shot),
Overtime (0 - 1)
01:05, 2 - 3, Aimurzin D. (G), Ilyin M. (A),

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 10 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ KHL (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Severstal is Qualified for KHL (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Barys won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Severstal may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Barys has had a series of home games.

Recently, Severstal has had a series of away games.

Severstal might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Barys won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 58:54. (average 2.9:2.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Barys won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 27:24. (average 2.7:2.4).

Outrights of KHL for now

Barys Astana: 0.58%

Last Results with these Odds

Barys Astana - the odds 3.35 are the expected chance of winning is 28.23%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Severstal Cherepovets - the odds 1.89 are the expected chance of winning is 49.96%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barys Astana
KHL
20.02.26	Barys Astana - Shanghai Dragons	3:4 OT ✺
17.02.26	Barys Astana - Metallurg Magnitogorsk	2:3 OT ✺
14.02.26	Barys Astana - Lada Togliatti	5:3 ✺
12.02.26	Barys Astana - SKA Saint Petersburg	0:5 ✺
04.02.26	Admiral Vladivostok - Barys Astana	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLWLW
- Severstal Cherepovets
KHL
20.02.26	Traktor Chelyabinsk - Severstal Cherepovets	5:2 ✺
18.02.26	SKA Saint Petersburg - Severstal Cherepovets	2:3 penalties ✺
15.02.26	Severstal Cherepovets - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	3:1 ✺
12.02.26	Shanghai Dragons - Severstal Cherepovets	2:3 ✺
10.02.26	Dinamo Minsk - Severstal Cherepovets	7:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

KHL
20.09.25	Severstal Cherepovets - Barys Astana	3:2
20.02.25	Barys Astana - Severstal Cherepovets	2:6
06.12.24	Severstal Cherepovets - Barys Astana	5:3
03.12.23	Severstal Cherepovets - Barys Astana	2:3 OT
12.11.23	Barys Astana - Severstal Cherepovets	4:1
25.01.23	Barys Astana - Severstal Cherepovets	0:1 penalties
24.09.22	Severstal Cherepovets - Barys Astana	5:2

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