Match Info

VHL

Date: 23 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Ledovaya Arena A. Kozitsyna (Verkhnyaya Pyshma)


	Gornyak-UGMK		Zvezda Moscow

	1	X	2
	2.03	3.69	3.29	Watch
	1.74	4	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.84)	3.85 ↓ (4.18)	3.4 ↓ (3.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gornyak-UGMK
48.9%

Draw
24%

Zvezda Moscow
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.9%

22.4%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.1%

22.5%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gornyak-UGMK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Zvezda Moscow has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gornyak-UGMK than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zvezda Moscow than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Gornyak UGMK - Zvezda Moscow Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Novosyolov N. (G)	45. Gluschenko R. (G)
90. Nekrasov N.	3. Sidorov M. (A)
62. Shchuchinov A.	8. Bobryashov N.
7. Gordin A.	77. Solovyov Y.
13. Zaytsev O. (C)	98. Pankratov S. (A)
80. Demidovich V.	42. Savvateyev V.
Line 2
85. Zhuravlyov Y.	6. Gordeyev M.
72. Trofimov Y.	48. Barantsev D.
56. Ovchinnikov I. (A)	62. Shalyshkin N.
14. Makhrin M. (A)	19. Prokhorov A. (C)
44. Lukhovskoy N.	23. Khulapov D.
Line 3
26. Ishimnikov N.	32. Rogov I.
83. Karpovich D.	80. Barabosha A.
29. Khremkin K.	52. Poroshkov D.
10. Filyayev V.	95. Vasin M.
32. Borisov S.	87. Yapparov Y.
Line 4
95. Dumchenko N.	82. Smyshlyayev P.
87. Loza I.	56. Vlasenko D.
18. Sushchev V.	75. Averochkin M.
96. Miller N.	81. Lapin S.
Substitutes
35. Tulinov N. (G)	31. Novozhilov I. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (1 - 0)
18:58, 1 - 0, Zaytsev O. (G), Shchuchinov A. (A), Demidovich V. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 0)
02:03, 2 - 0, Khremkin K. (G), Borisov S. (A), Ishimnikov N. (A2)
19:58, 3 - 0, Khremkin K. (G), Lukhovskoy N. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gornyak-UGMK won 2.

Gornyak-UGMK has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Zvezda Moscow has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Gornyak-UGMK may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Zvezda Moscow has had a series of home games.

Gornyak-UGMK will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Gornyak-UGMK won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 51:53. (average 2.8:2.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Gornyak-UGMK won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:25. (average 2.3:2.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Gornyak-UGMK - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50.93%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gornyak-UGMK
VHL
21.12.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Khimik	3:2 penalties ✺
19.12.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Torpedo-Gorky	2:3 penalties ✺
14.12.25	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Gornyak-UGMK	3:2 ✺
12.12.25	Magnitka Magnitogorsk - Gornyak-UGMK	7:3 ✺
05.12.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Chelmet	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLLL
- Zvezda Moscow
VHL
19.12.25	Zvezda Moscow - Toros Neftekamsk	3:2 penalties ✺
17.12.25	Zvezda Moscow - Izhstal	4:1 ✺
15.12.25	Zvezda Moscow - Olympia Kirovo-Chepetsk	1:2 ✺
13.12.25	Zvezda Moscow - Molot Perm	2:3 penalties ✺
07.12.25	Toros Neftekamsk - Zvezda Moscow	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

VHL
23.11.25	Zvezda Moscow - Gornyak-UGMK	2:3 penalties
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
15.08.25	Zvezda Moscow - Gornyak-UGMK	5:1
VHL
10.02.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Zvezda Moscow	4:5 OT
11.10.24	Zvezda Moscow - Gornyak-UGMK	5:4 OT
06.02.24	Gornyak-UGMK - Zvezda Moscow	3:2 OT
20.09.23	Zvezda Moscow - Gornyak-UGMK	2:4
12.01.23	Zvezda Moscow - Gornyak-UGMK	2:3 OT

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