Match Info
LiigaDate: 14 March 2026, SaturdayLocation: Oulun Energia Areena (Oulu)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
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Kärpät |
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HIFK |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
2.7 |
4.2 |
2.2 |
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 |
2.7 |
3.7 |
2.42 |
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2.5 |
3.85 |
2.5 |
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2.48 |
3.82 |
2.48 |
 Watch |
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2.45 |
3.75 |
2.25 |
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 |
2.43 |
4.15 |
2.41 |
Watch |
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.54 ↑
(2.5) |
3.91 ↓
(4.06) |
2.38 ↑
(2.35) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 5.50
- The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Kärpät
36.8% | Draw
23.9% | HIFK
39.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Kärpät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)HIFK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (+3.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for HIFK than the current prediction. (-2.7%)Kärpät - HIFK Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3 
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Lineups
| Line 1 |
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41.  Rubin N. (G)
| 73.  Kohonen P. (G)
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25. Paaso A.
| 40. Lindbohm P.
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26.  Tichacek J.
| 6. Sund T.
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38. Raty Aku
| 43.  Marleau V.
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33. Hirvonen R.
| 21. Lehtera J. (A)
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13. Junttila J.
| 77. Kodytek P.
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| Line 2 |
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55. Ohtamaa A. (C)
| 33. Kiviharju A.
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9. Soini K.
| 11. Melart I. (A)
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93. Kantner M.
| 81. Pakarinen I. (C)
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11. Virta P. (A)
| 18. Uronen A.
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59. Hermonen J.
| 93. Vanhatalo L.
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| Line 3 |
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58. Hakanpaa J.
| 98.  Larsen O.
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61. Salmela T.
| 10. Ragnarsson J.
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73. Erholtz E. (A)
| 29. Repo S.
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19. Tikka T.
| 47.  Ashbrook T.
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51. Pietila B.
| 71. Makiaho D.
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| Line 4 |
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27. Jonsson S.
| 28. Ervasti K.
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12. Stalberg S.
| 52. Palmu P.
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28. Ojantakanen K.
| 15. Somppi O.
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39. Juusola V.
| 19. Lundell K.
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| Substitutes |
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31. Vedenpaa V. (G)
| 60. Alnefelt H. (G)
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| Coaches |
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. Karjalainen P.
| . Jokinen O.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Period (2 - 0)
- 05:11, Ashbrook T. (2 min),
- 05:38, 1 - 0, Hirvonen R. (G), Kantner M. (A), Raty Aku (A2)
- 07:42, Hirvonen R. (2 min),
- 13:10, 2 - 0, Hermonen J. (G), Raty Aku (A), Tichacek J. (A2)
- 2nd Period (0 - 0)
- 00:32, Sund T. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (2 - 5)
- 02:01, Makiaho D. (2 min),
- 04:54, 2 - 1, Melart I. (G), Ashbrook T. (A), Makiaho D. (A2)
- 07:48, 3 - 1, Hakanpaa J. (G), Salmela T. (A), Hirvonen R. (A2)
- 11:03, Ohtamaa A. (2 min),
- 11:40, 3 - 2, Pakarinen I. (G), Kodytek P. (A), Lehtera J. (A2)
- 11:56, 3 - 3, Makiaho D. (G), Repo S. (A),
- 12:16, 4 - 3, Raty Aku (G), Salmela T. (A), Hakanpaa J. (A2)
- 18:29, 4 - 4, Pakarinen I. (G), Lehtera J. (A), Ervasti K. (A2)
- 19:52, 4 - 5, Marleau V. (G), Lehtera J. (A),
Preview
An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 1.Kärpät is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).HIFK is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).HIFK may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days. In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win. We predict that HIFK will win today's game, with odds of 2.32.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 40:58. (average 2:2.9).Including home matches between the teams, Kärpät won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 20:26. (average 2:2.6).
Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now
IFK Helsinki: 4.75%
Standings
| | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
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| 4 | Karpat | 13 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 35:34 | 22 |
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| 14 | IFK Helsinki | 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 31:34 | 13 |
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Last Results with these Odds
Kärpät - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 37.32%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Finnish SM-liiga | | | 13.03.26 | HIFK - Kärpät | 3:1 | | 06.02.26 | HIFK - Kärpät | 3:2 | | 05.12.25 | Kärpät - HIFK | 0:1 | | 15.11.25 | Kärpät - HIFK | 5:2 | | 14.11.25 | HIFK - Kärpät | 4:3 penalties | | 15.03.25 | Kärpät - HIFK | 1:2 | | 14.03.25 | HIFK - Kärpät | 3:0 |
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