Match Info

Liiga

Date: 28 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Oulun Energia Areena (Oulu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Kärpät		Pelicans

	1	X	2
	2	4.2	3.1
	2.19	3.91	2.94	Watch
	2.24	3.46	2.85
	2.21	3.72	2.92	Watch
	2.1	3.7	2.7
	2.16	3.96	2.88	Watch
	2.15	3.75	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (1.93)	3.81 ↓ (3.88)	2.91 ↓ (3.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kärpät
43.4%

Draw
24.5%

Pelicans
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.4%

24.1%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

25.5%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kärpät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Pelicans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pelicans than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	14.3%	71.4%

Kärpät - Pelicans Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Kärpät will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Pelicans will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Pelicans will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
41. Rubin N. (G)	32. Bartosak P. (G)
58. Hakanpaa J.	44. Kousa M. (A)
26. Tichacek J.	61. Jurgens C. (C)
38. Raty Aku	37. Dudas A.
33. Hirvonen R.	7. Stapley B.
12. Stalberg S.	10. Karvinen R.
Line 2
47. Bjork M. (A)	47. Jordan M. (A)
25. Paaso A.	55. Falk H.
93. Kantner M.	88. Vanderbeck A.
19. Tikka T.	91. Vilen E.
73. Erholtz E. (A)	72. Carlsson P.
Line 3
55. Ohtamaa A. (C)	4. Johannesen J.
9. Soini K.	87. Nieminen D.
22. Nikupeteri O.	74. Teutari E.
13. Junttila J.	95. Batna O.
18. Antti-Roiko A.	96. Kumpula J.
Line 4
61. Salmela T.	83. Luhanka E.
51. Pietila B.	27. Lind O.
28. Ojantakanen K.	29. Vaananen M.
59. Hermonen J.	20. Hirvonen K.
Substitutes
31. Vedenpaa V. (G)	1. Emond Z. (G)
Coaches
. Karjalainen P.	. Kapanen S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
13:32, 0 - 1, Dudas A. (G), Jurgens C. (A),
15:08, Soini K. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 0)
02:50, Vilen E. (2 min),
05:29, Dudas A. (2 min),
14:44, 1 - 1, Ohtamaa A. (G), Paaso A. (A), Junttila J. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 1)
06:02, Hermonen J. (2 min),
12:10, Tichacek J. (2 min),
18:17, 2 - 1, Raty Aku (G), Junttila J. (A), Antti-Roiko A. (A2)
19:22, 2 - 2, Karvinen R. (G), Dudas A. (A), Vaananen M. (A2)
Overtime (0 - 1)
02:26, 2 - 3, Nieminen D. (G), Vaananen M. (A), Batna O. (A2)

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 15 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Pelicans has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 41:58. (average 2.1:2.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Kärpät won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 25:27. (average 2.8:3).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
4	Karpat	13	5	2	3	3	35:34	22
12	Pelicans	10	5	0	1	4	24:23	16

Last Results with these Odds

Pelicans - the odds 3.39 are the expected chance of winning is 27.57%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kärpat Oulu
Finnish SM-liiga
24.01.26	SaiPa - Kärpät	7:4 ✺
23.01.26	Kiekko-Espoo - Kärpät	1:2 ✺
16.01.26	Kärpät - Lukko	5:4 OT ✺
14.01.26	Kärpät - SaiPa	1:2 ✺
10.01.26	TPS - Kärpät	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LWWLW
- Pelicans Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
24.01.26	Vaasan Sport - Pelicans	2:3 ✺
23.01.26	TPS - Pelicans	3:4 OT ✺
17.01.26	KooKoo - Pelicans	1:2 ✺
16.01.26	Pelicans - KalPa	1:3 ✺
13.01.26	Lukko - Pelicans	4:3 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
29.11.25	Pelicans - Kärpät	5:1
01.10.25	Kärpät - Pelicans	2:3 OT
12.02.25	Kärpät - Pelicans	4:7
11.01.25	Pelicans - Kärpät	2:1
05.12.24	Kärpät - Pelicans	5:4
16.11.24	Pelicans - Kärpät	4:1
13.04.24	Pelicans - Kärpät	2:1 OT

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