The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Ontario Reign 44.2%
Draw 22.6%
Bakersfield Condors 33.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
45.3%
23.3%
31.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
41.8%
25.3%
34%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ontario Reign has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)
Bakersfield Condors has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ontario Reign than the current prediction. (-2.4%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bakersfield Condors than the current prediction. (+0.8%)
Ontario Reign - Bakersfield Condors Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Portillo E. (G)
90. Tomkins M. (G)
59. Alexandrov N.
44. Brown J.
24. Booth A.
66. Brown M.
91. Brown L.
73. Carfagna D.
8. Chromiak M.
64. Clattenburg C.
17. Connors K.
19. D'Amato D.
37. Doty J. (A)
55. Dineen C. (A)
55. Dvorak J.
52. Hamblin J. (A)
21. Gawdin G. (A)
53. Howard I.
81. Guttman C.
23. Hutson Q.
27. Hicketts J. (C)
15. Jarventie R.
47. Hughes J.
63. Keppen E.
86. Jamsen A.
37. Leppanen A.
19. Kirsanov K.
57. Marjala V.
26. Lee A.
78. Millman M.
45. Millar J.
43. Petrov M.
74. Novikov N.
68. Pitlick R.
71. Pinelli F.
8. Poulin S.
13. Ziemmer K.
77. Prokop L.
Substitutes
29. Copley P. (G)
30. Pickard C. (G)
Key Events of the Match
1st Period (1 - 2)
01:47, 0 - 1, Jarventie R. (G), Howard I. (A), Hutson Q. (A2)
12:01, 1 - 1, Gawdin G. (G), Guttman C. (A), Hicketts J. (A2)
19:06, 1 - 2, Poulin S. (G), Petrov M. (A),
2nd Period (3 - 1)
01:33, 2 - 2, Lee A. (G), Pinelli F. (A), Connors K. (A2)
08:07, 2 - 3, Hamblin J. (G), Dineen C. (A), Brown J. (A2)
09:21, 3 - 3, Hughes J. (G), Connors K. (A),
11:44, 4 - 3, Alexandrov N. (G), Brown L. (A), Hicketts J. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 0)
02:18, 5 - 3, Brown L. (G), Pinelli F. (A),
17:46, 6 - 3, Alexandrov N. (G),
Preview
This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: )).
Ontario is Qualified for AHL (Play Offs )
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ontario won 4.
Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
Ontario may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, Ontario has had a series of away games.
Recently, Bakersfield has had a series of home games.
Ontario could have a small edge in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ontario won 15 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 62:53. (average 3.1:2.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Ontario won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 36:33. (average 3.6:3.3).
Last Results with these Odds
Bakersfield Condors - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 31.38%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.
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Portillo E. (G) 
Tomkins M. (G) 
Alexandrov N. 
Brown M. 
Chromiak M. 
Dvorak J. 
Jarventie R. 
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