Match Info
LiigaDate: 19 December 2025, FridayLocation: Kisapuisto (Lappeenranta)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
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SaiPa |
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Lukko |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
1.83 |
4.5 |
3.4 |
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 |
1.93 |
4.35 |
3.28 |
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 |
1.9 |
3.85 |
3.27 |
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 |
1.88 |
4.28 |
3.48 |
 Watch |
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1.8 |
4 |
3.1 |
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 |
1.89 |
4.25 |
3.35 |
Watch |
 |
2 |
4 |
3.25 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.89 ↓
(2.27) |
4.18 ↑
(3.63) |
3.3 ↑
(2.92) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.25
- The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
SaiPa
49.4% | Draw
22.4% | Lukko
28.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
SaiPa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in SaiPa's performance.Lukko has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for SaiPa than the current prediction. (-7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with SaiPa that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (+3.5%)SaiPa - Lukko Predictions
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. SaiPa will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Lukko will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%). Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): SaiPa will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2 
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Lineups
| Line 1 |
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30.  Piiroinen K. (G)
| 32. Raanta A. (G)
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22. Aho K.
| 9.  Stenqvist J.
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26. Kivihalme T.
| 38. Almari N. (A)
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51. Kalapudas A.
| 16.  Beaucage A.
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15. Salomaki M. (A)
| 88. Morand A.
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25. Kuusla E.
| 18. Jandric S.
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| Line 2 |
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14.  Kramer B.
| 86. Gelinas E. (C)
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55.  Trejbal O.
| 5. Peters A.
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41. Fortier M.
| 90. Hamalainen L.
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82. Nikkanen H.
| 14. Intonen A.
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10. Kivenmaki O.
| 48. Ikonen H. (A)
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| Line 3 |
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50. Salminen S. (A)
| 34. Viitasalo N.
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7. Niinisaari S. (C)
| 51. Korkka O.
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75. Siikanen P.
| 27. Westerholm Po.
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12. Bau S.
| 17. Westerholm Pa.
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70. Naukkarinen J.
| 47. Haapanen T.
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| Line 4 |
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17. Svensk V.
| 15. Tukiainen J.
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81. Klintrup E.
| 12. Vechet P.
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57. Hokkanen O.
| 33. Pulakka V.
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18. Heikkila J.
| 23.  Trakht D.
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| Substitutes |
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31.  Grigals G. (G)
| 30. Salonen D. (G)
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| Coaches |
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. Helminen R.
| . Lamsa T.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Period (2 - 0)
- 01:23, 1 - 0, Kalapudas A. (G), Kuusla E. (A), Salomaki M. (A2)
- 03:17, Almari N. (2 min),
- 03:27, 2 - 0, Salomaki M. (G), Kuusla E. (A), Kalapudas A. (A2)
- 10:31, Viitasalo N. (2 min),
- 12:55, Morand A. (2 min),
- 2nd Period (1 - 2)
- 01:53, 2 - 1, Gelinas E. (G), Westerholm Pa. (A), Westerholm Po. (A2)
- 02:29, 2 - 2, Intonen A. (G), Peters A. (A), Hamalainen L. (A2)
- 10:42, Westerholm Po. (2 min),
- 13:56, Jandric S. (2 min),
- 16:33, Salomaki M. (2 min),
- 16:33, Salomaki M. (2 min),
- 16:48, 3 - 2, Klintrup E. (G), Bau S. (A),
- 18:25, Heikkila J. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (2 - 0)
- 07:48, Kivenmaki O. (2 min),
- 11:17, Stenqvist J. (2 min),
- 12:18, 4 - 2, Siikanen P. (G), Fortier M. (A), Kramer B. (A2)
- 13:26, Viitasalo N. (2 min),
- 13:26, (2 min),
- 15:23, 5 - 2, Salomaki M. (G), Kivihalme T. (A), Kuusla E. (A2)
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, SaiPa won 2.SaiPa has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).Lukko is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).SaiPa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.Recently, SaiPa has had a series of away games. In this match, SaiPa is seen as the favorite.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, SaiPa won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 40:54. (average 2:2.7).Including home matches between the teams, SaiPa won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:32. (average 2.2:2.9).
Last Results with these Odds
SaiPa - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 41.62%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.
Lukko - the odds 2.92 are the expected chance of winning is 32.35%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Finnish SM-liiga | | | 15.11.25 | SaiPa - Lukko | 4:5 | | 18.10.25 | Lukko - SaiPa | 4:2 | | 21.04.25 | SaiPa - Lukko | 2:1 OT | | 18.04.25 | Lukko - SaiPa | 3:2 OT | | 16.04.25 | SaiPa - Lukko | 5:2 | | 14.04.25 | Lukko - SaiPa | 1:2 OT | | 12.04.25 | SaiPa - Lukko | 3:5 |
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