Match Info

Liiga

Date: 23 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Kivikylan Areena (Rauma) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Finland	18:30	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	17:30	TV4 Play


	Lukko		TPS

	1	X	2
	2.2	4	2.65
	2.15	4.00	2.75
	2.25	3.85	2.85	Watch
	2.19	3.66	2.94
	2.21	3.82	2.86	Watch
	2.16	3.6	2.9
	2.2	4.05	2.77	Watch
	2.2	3.9	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (2.04)	3.86 ↑ (3.71)	2.8 ↓ (3.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lukko
42.5%

Draw
24.2%

TPS
33.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.8%

25.2%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

26.4%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lukko has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

TPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for TPS than the current prediction. (-3%)

Lukko - TPS Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
32. Raanta A. (G)	30. Ruusu M. (G)
9. Stenqvist J.	6. Rafkin R. (A)
27. Seppala P.	44. Lindbohm P.
16. Beaucage A.	49. Wernblom L.
93. Ruohomaa M. (A)	97. Haudum L.
18. Liedes H. (C)	22. Bryggman L. (A)
Line 2
34. Viitasalo N.	38. Landen A.
43. Valila A.	40. Lehtonen S.
87. Saarela A. (A)	25. Ikonen Jo.
91. Robert F.	86. Yliniemi S.
25. Saarela A.	24. Virtanen J.
Line 3
96. Harpur C.	2. Tuhkala A.
56. Olsson A.	61. Binner A.
6. Tuuva L.	10. Ylitalo N.
29. Vanninen A.	13. Paajanen O. (C)
57. Mensonen J.	19. Savinainen V.
Line 4
15. Tukiainen J.	4. Chicoine G.
48. Ikonen H.	9. Koivu A.
24. Krannila J.	21. Maatta J.
47. Haapanen T.	57. Munkki V.
Substitutes
30. Salonen D. (G)	47. Kuru H.
23. Trakht D.	32. Vali N. (G)
Coaches
. Lamsa T.	. Soderholm T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
00:50, 1 - 0, Beaucage A. (G), Liedes H. (A), Stenqvist J. (A2)
2nd Period (2 - 0)
07:37, 2 - 0, Saarela A. (G), Robert F. (A), Saarela A. (A2)
07:52, Ikonen H. (2 min),
13:36, Maatta J. (2 min),
18:18, 3 - 0, Robert F. (G), Saarela A. (A), Harpur C. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 1)
06:53, 4 - 0, Olsson A. (G), Vanninen A. (A), Saarela A. (A2)
12:44, Savinainen V. (2 min),
14:44, Lindbohm P. (2 min),
17:07, 4 - 1, Bryggman L. (G), Haudum L. (A), Wernblom L. (A2)

Preview

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 2nd in the Promotion - Liiga Playoffs - Quarter - finals and 6th in the Promotion - Liiga Playoffs - 1/8 - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 3.

Both teams enter this match with positive momentum from recent weeks.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Lukko has recorded 11 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 51:45 (averaging 2.6:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lukko against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with 30:23 goals (averaging 3:2.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
1	Lukko	19	11	3	1	4	53:36	40
7	TPS Turku	19	9	1	2	7	53:48	31

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

TPS Turku: 5.33%

Last Results with these Odds

Lukko - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 45.8%, but this team recently wins 77% of matches with these odds.

TPS - the odds 3.22 are the expected chance of winning is 29.02%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lukko Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
20.10.26	Lukko - HIFK	3:2 penalties ✺
17.10.26	Lukko - Kiekko-Espoo	3:1 ✺
16.10.26	Tappara - Lukko	1:2 ✺
14.10.26	JYP - Lukko	3:2 penalties ✺
09.10.26	Ilves - Lukko	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2 WWWLW
- TPS hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
20.10.26	TPS - Ilves	4:3 ✺
17.10.26	Ässät - TPS	2:4 ✺
16.10.26	TPS - Kiekko-Espoo	4:2 ✺
14.10.26	HIFK - TPS	3:4 penalties ✺
10.10.26	Tappara - TPS	4:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly Ice Hockey
14.08.26	TPS - Lukko	3:2
Finnish SM-liiga
04.03.26	TPS - Lukko	3:4 penalties
06.02.26	Lukko - TPS	3:2
05.12.25	Lukko - TPS	4:2
13.09.25	TPS - Lukko	3:0
Finnish Pitsiturnaus
01.08.25	Lukko - TPS	5:1
Finnish SM-liiga
14.03.25	TPS - Lukko	1:4

Lukko - TPS