Match Info

Liiga

Date: 6 February 2026, Friday

Location: Kivikylan Areena (Rauma)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Lukko		TPS

	1	X	2
	1.56	5	4.5
	1.55	4.25	5
	1.6	4.49	4.9	Watch
	1.58	4.09	4.52
	1.53	4.74	5.01	Watch
	1.5	4.33	4.33
	1.59	4.8	4.43	Watch
	1.6	4.25	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.7)	4.49 ↑ (4.13)	4.68 ↑ (4.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lukko
59.4%

Draw
20.7%

TPS
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55%

22.6%

22.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52%

23.9%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lukko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

TPS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lukko that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Lukko - TPS Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Lukko will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:1

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Salonen D. (G)	30. Ruusu M. (G)
9. Stenqvist J.	38. Landen A.
38. Almari N.	61. Binner A.
16. Beaucage A.	49. Wernblom L.
93. Ruohomaa M. (A)	86. Yliniemi S.
24. Krannila J.	82. Pakkila E.
Line 2
86. Gelinas E. (C)	6. Rafkin R.
5. Peters A.	40. Lehtonen S.
90. Hamalainen L.	9. Koivu A.
88. Morand A.	26. Nassen L.
18. Jandric S.	87. Saarela A.
Line 3
34. Viitasalo N.	5. Sjoholm V.
56. Olsson A.	66. Reunanen T. (C)
27. Westerholm Po.	84. Pikkarainen K.
14. Intonen A.	21. Maatta J. (A)
25. Saarela A.	20. Myllymaa K.
Line 4
43. Valila A.	2. Tuhkala A.
47. Haapanen T.	10. Ylitalo N.
10. Joki A.	57. Munkki V.
48. Ikonen H. (A)	90. Uusikartano A.
Substitutes
31. Ortio J. (G)	36. Makiniemi E. (G)
Coaches
. Lamsa T.	. Soderholm T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
08:40, 0 - 1, Uusikartano A. (G), Rafkin R. (A), Munkki V. (A2)
11:06, Rafkin R. (2 min),
12:40, Saarela A. (2 min),
12:40, Maatta J. (2 min),
16:48, 1 - 1, Olsson A. (G), Ikonen H. (A),
2nd Period (0 - 1)
03:42, 1 - 2, Binner A. (G), Nassen L. (A), Landen A. (A2)
17:14, Viitasalo N. (2 min),
3rd Period (2 - 0)
00:58, (2 min),
02:09, 2 - 2, Viitasalo N. (G), Saarela A. (A), Ruohomaa M. (A2)
03:16, 3 - 2, Jandric S. (G), Morand A. (A),
09:13, Saarela A. (2 min),

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 4.

In recent matches, Lukko has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

TPS has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, TPS has had a series of away games.

In this match, Lukko is the team to beat.

We predict that Lukko will win today's game, with odds of 1.64.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 52:42. (average 2.6:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Lukko won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 36:24. (average 3.3:2.2).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

TPS Turku: 3.42%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
6	Lukko	11	6	1	0	4	29:23	20
11	TPS Turku	11	5	0	1	5	29:25	16

Last Results with these Odds

Lukko - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 54.97%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lukko Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
03.02.26	Lukko - JYP	5:2 ✺
31.01.26	HPK - Lukko	0:1 OT ✺
30.01.26	Lukko - HIFK	6:2 ✺
27.01.26	JYP - Lukko	4:3 ✺
24.01.26	Lukko - Ässät	3:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWLL
- TPS hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
03.02.26	KalPa - TPS	7:3 ✺
31.01.26	KooKoo - TPS	5:1 ✺
30.01.26	JYP - TPS	2:1 OT ✺
27.01.26	TPS - KalPa	3:2 OT ✺
24.01.26	Tappara - TPS	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
05.12.25	Lukko - TPS	4:2
13.09.25	TPS - Lukko	3:0
Finnish Pitsiturnaus
01.08.25	Lukko - TPS	5:1
Finnish SM-liiga
14.03.25	TPS - Lukko	1:4
30.11.24	TPS - Lukko	1:2
29.11.24	Lukko - TPS	4:5
13.09.24	Lukko - TPS	3:2 OT

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