Match Info

OHL

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Progressive Auto Sales Arena (Sarnia, ON)


	Sarnia Sting		Peterborough Petes

	1	X	2
	3.01	4.02	1.97
	3.01	4.12	1.95	Watch
	2.8	4	2
	2.95	4	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↑ (2.72)	4.04 ↓ (4.19)	1.96 ↓ (2.08)

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarnia Sting
30.9%

Draw
22.5%

Peterborough Petes
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

22%

44.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

23.5%

41.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarnia Sting has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Peterborough Petes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarnia Sting than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sarnia Sting, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peterborough Petes than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Peterborough Petes, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Quinlan P. (G)	30. Rye E. (G)
6. Aucoin C.	15. Cameron C. (C)
33. Aucoin K.	28. Faulkner B.
61. Bax J. (A)	8. Frazer G.
40. Beamish L.	19. Hammond B.
13. Capecci K.	4. Hartnell C.
84. Challenger T.	12. Kolarik L.
17. Di Iorio A. (C)	10. Levac A.
81. Edwards B. (A)	44. Lutz Y.
71. Gaughan C.	3. Marentette T.
10. Hall C.	29. McCallum B. (A)
77. Hurt H. (A)	61. McGregor K.
93. Lammens B.	16. Novotny A.
55. Manza M.	11. Partridge B.
12. Pickell B.	72. Perreault M.
7. Reese J.	2. Radley B.
19. Solomon H.	92. Soto M.
14. Van Volsen J.	22. Walton K.
11. Walos E.	26. Young A. (A)
Substitutes
30. Maillet E. (G)	34. Johnston M. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 3)
01:52, 1 - 0, Walos E. (G), Bax J. (A),
03:36, 1 - 1, Soto M. (G), McCallum B. (A), Hartnell C. (A2)
08:14, 1 - 2, Novotny A. (G), Walton K. (A), McCallum B. (A2)
15:23, 1 - 3, Lutz Y. (G), Young A. (A),
15:43, 2 - 3, Challenger T. (G), Beamish L. (A),
2nd Period (0 - 1)
16:42, 2 - 4, Walton K. (G), Kolarik L. (A), Novotny A. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 1)
17:09, 2 - 5, Young A. (G), McCallum B. (A),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ OHL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sarnia won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Peterborough may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Sarnia has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sarnia won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 74:64. (average 3.7:3.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Sarnia won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 39:32. (average 3.9:3.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Sarnia Sting - the odds 2.72 are the expected chance of winning is 33.82%, but this team recently wins 17% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarnia Sting
OHL
23.01.26	London Knights - Sarnia Sting	3:2 OT ✺
16.01.26	Sarnia Sting - London Knights	1:4 ✺
15.01.26	Sarnia Sting - Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds	2:5 ✺
11.01.26	Sarnia Sting - Kingston Frontenacs	3:1 ✺
09.01.26	Sarnia Sting - Erie Otters	9:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LLLWW
- Peterborough Petes
OHL
22.01.26	Peterborough Petes - Saginaw Spirit	1:4 ✺
18.01.26	Ottawa 67s - Peterborough Petes	5:2 ✺
17.01.26	Peterborough Petes - Niagara IceDogs	1:0 ✺
16.01.26	Brantford Bulldogs - Peterborough Petes	4:3 ✺
10.01.26	Peterborough Petes - Guelph Storm	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

OHL
13.11.25	Peterborough Petes - Sarnia Sting	5:3
08.02.25	Sarnia Sting - Peterborough Petes	3:2 penalties
05.12.24	Peterborough Petes - Sarnia Sting	3:2 OT
03.01.24	Sarnia Sting - Peterborough Petes	2:1
09.11.23	Peterborough Petes - Sarnia Sting	1:2 penalties
12.01.23	Peterborough Petes - Sarnia Sting	2:4
11.12.22	Sarnia Sting - Peterborough Petes	1:4

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