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Current Win Probability
Sarnia Sting 48.2%
Draw 20.6%
Erie Otters 31.2%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
50.8%
19.8%
29.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
52.3%
20.4%
27.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sarnia Sting has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)
Erie Otters has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarnia Sting than the current prediction. (+4.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Erie Otters than the current prediction. (-3.9%)
Sarnia Sting - Erie Otters Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
31. Osipenko K. (G)
88. Egorov D. (G)
6. Aucoin C. (A)
92. Agrette M.
33. Aucoin K.
73. Ambrosio L.
18. Campbell D.
21. Arkko L.
84. Challenger T.
91. Beamish L.
17. Di Iorio A. (C)
25. Dec M. (A)
41. Emerton C.
13. Edwards K.
71. Gaughan C.
15. Gesink A.
27. Gulbrandsen J.
22. Gladman A.
26. Hawery L.
81. Headrick E.
53. Holmes P. (A)
2. Henry T.
9. Jaworski S.
34. Kamzik K.
24. Katolicky S.
89. Lombardi U.
93. Lammens B.
4. McArthur B.
55. Manza M.
29. Michalski G.
43. Pickersgill L.
80. Murray J.
8. Sewell C.
6. Saari J. (A)
49. Spencer L.
96. Schuster P.
14. Van Volsen J. (A)
11. Torr J.
11. Walos E.
10. Trevino T. (C)
Substitutes
34. Tkach-Tkachenko I. (G)
30. Karbowski L. (G)
Key Events of the Match
1st Period (2 - 1)
10:09, 0 - 1, Torr J. (G), Lombardi U. (A),
10:27, 1 - 1, Gaughan C. (G), Gulbrandsen J. (A), Di Iorio A. (A2)
11:19, 2 - 1, Holmes P. (G), Van Volsen J. (A), Challenger T. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 1)
12:30, 3 - 1, Holmes P. (G), Van Volsen J. (A), Aucoin C. (A2)
14:28, 3 - 2, Lombardi U. (G), Ambrosio L. (A), Kamzik K. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 2)
06:47, 3 - 3, Dec M. (G), Agrette M. (A), Ambrosio L. (A2)
18:29, 3 - 4, Kamzik K. (G), Headrick E. (A), Torr J. (A2)
Preview
A direct clash near the foot of the table where neither side can afford to drop points (ranked 9th and 8th in the Promotion - OHL Playoffs).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sarnia won 2.
Sarnia is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Performances by Erie have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Sarnia could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
Sarnia is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Sarnia has recorded 11 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 78:71 (averaging 3.9:3.6 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Sarnia against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 47:30 goals (averaging 4.7:3 per game).
Last Results with these Odds
Erie Otters - the odds 3.13 are the expected chance of winning is 29.39%, but this team recently wins 16% of matches with these odds.
Watch
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Osipenko K. (G) 
Aucoin C. (A) 
Arkko L. 
Gulbrandsen J. 
Katolicky S. 
Schuster P. 
Tkach-Tkachenko I. (G) 
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