Match Info

NHL

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Benchmark International Arena (Tampa, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Sports MAX 6
Germany	NHL.tv, Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event
Iceland	Viaplay
Mexico	Disney+, Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
Sweden	Viaplay
Ukraine	Setanta Sports+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Tampa Bay Lightning		Vegas Golden Knights

	1	X	2
	2.1	4.2	2.9	Watch
	2.13	4.33	2.84
	2.41	4.25	2.45	Watch
	2.18	4.57	2.82
	2.16	4.2	2.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.41)	4.31 ↑ (4.25)	2.75 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tampa Bay Lightning
43.3%

Draw
22.1%

Vegas Golden Knights
34.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

22.2%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

21.7%

39.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tampa Bay Lightning has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Vegas Golden Knights has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tampa Bay Lightning than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vegas Golden Knights than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	21.4%	64.3%

Tampa Bay Lightning - Vegas Golden Knights Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Tampa Bay will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Vegas will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vegas: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 5.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Vegas (2.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Vegas Golden Knights will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Vegas (votes: 10 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Lineups

Line 1
88. Vasilevski A. (G)	30. Lindbom C. (G)
90. Moser J.J.	27. Theodore S.
77. Hedman V. (C)	3. McNabb B. (A)
86. Kucherov N. (A)	20. Saad B.
21. Point B.	9. Eichel J. (A)
59. Guentzel J.	49. Barbashev I.
Line 2
81. Cernak E.	2. Whitecloud Z.
27. McDonagh R. (A)	17. Hutton B.
42. Douglas C.	93. Marner M.
71. Cirelli A.	48. Hertl T.
38. Hagel B.	16. Dorofeyev P.
Line 3
43. Raddysh D.	6. Korczak K.
78. Lilleberg E.	5. Lauzon J.
93. Goncalves G.	26. Holtz A.
37. Gourde Y.	71. Karlsson W. (A)
22. Bjorkstrand O.	19. Smith R.
Line 4
29. Holmberg P.	55. Kolesar K.
17. James D.	10. Sissons C.
28. Girgensons Z.	21. Howden B.
Substitutes
31. Johansson J. (G)	40. Schmid A. (G)
Coaches
. Cooper J.	. Cassidy B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
00:31, Lilleberg E. (5 min),
00:31, Kolesar K. (5 min),
04:53, 1 - 0, Hagel B. (G), Hedman V. (A), Guentzel J. (A2)
06:51, Saad B. (2 min),
07:31, Bjorkstrand O. (2 min),
11:19, Holtz A. (2 min),
18:25, 1 - 1, Karlsson W. (G), Smith R. (A), Theodore S. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 0)
06:20, Lauzon J. (2 min),
10:15, Korczak K. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 0)
10:32, Hagel B. (2 min),
14:30, Girgensons Z. (2 min),
Overtime (1 - 0)
00:32, 2 - 1, Kucherov N. (G), Hagel B. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 3.

Tampa Bay is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Vegas is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Tampa Bay may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Tampa Bay: Crozier M. (Injury) Paul N. (Upper-Body Injury)

There will not play in Vegas: Hanifin N. (Lower-Body Injury) Hart C. (Suspended) Hill A. (Lower-Body Injury) Pietrangelo A. (Hip Injury) Stone M. (Wrist Injury)

There are questionable in Vegas: Howden B. (Lower-Body Injury)

We predict that Vegas will win today's game, with odds of 2.77.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 45:49. (average 3.2:3.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Tampa Bay won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:23. (average 3:3.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Tampa Bay Lightning - the odds 2.41 are the expected chance of winning is 39.2%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Vegas Golden Knights - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 38.56%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tampa Bay Lightning
NHL
25.10.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - Anaheim Ducks	4:3 ✺
23.10.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - Chicago Blackhawks	2:3 ✺
18.10.25	Columbus Blue Jackets - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:2 ✺
17.10.25	Detroit Red Wings - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:1 OT ✺
14.10.25	Washington Capitals - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:2 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WLLLL
- Vegas Golden Knights
NHL
25.10.25	Florida Panthers - Vegas Golden Knights	3:0 ✺
20.10.25	Vegas Golden Knights - Carolina Hurricanes	4:1 ✺
18.10.25	Vegas Golden Knights - Calgary Flames	6:1 ✺
16.10.25	Vegas Golden Knights - Boston Bruins	6:5 ✺
14.10.25	Calgary Flames - Vegas Golden Knights	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

NHL
23.03.25	Vegas Golden Knights - Tampa Bay Lightning	4:2
17.10.24	Tampa Bay Lightning - Vegas Golden Knights	4:3
19.03.24	Vegas Golden Knights - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:5
21.12.23	Tampa Bay Lightning - Vegas Golden Knights	5:4
09.03.23	Tampa Bay Lightning - Vegas Golden Knights	3:4 OT
18.02.23	Vegas Golden Knights - Tampa Bay Lightning	5:4
29.01.22	Tampa Bay Lightning - Vegas Golden Knights	2:3 penalties

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