What is the expert prediction for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche?

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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, January 25, 2026)

Match Info

NHL

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto, ON)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Chile	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 4
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
Germany	Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event
Iceland	Viaplay
Italy	DAZN Italia
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Movistar Deportes
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Ukraine	Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	DAZN, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	NHL Network
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Toronto Maple Leafs		Colorado Avalanche

	1	X	2
	3.25	4.25	1.95	Watch
	3.36	4.48	1.88
	3.17	4.52	1.94
	3.15	4.58	1.94	Watch
	3.25	4.5	1.91
	3.29	4.47	1.99	Watch
	3.3	4.5	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.25 ↑ (3.18)	4.47 ↑ (4.42)	1.92 ↓ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toronto Maple Leafs
29.3%

Draw
21.3%

Colorado Avalanche
49.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

21.9%

47.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.5%

20.4%

51%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toronto Maple Leafs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Colorado Avalanche has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Colorado Avalanche than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	31.2%	31.2%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Toronto will win (votes: 6 - 40%). Colorado will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toronto: 15.2% – 64.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Toronto (votes: 3 - 60%). Colorado (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Toronto (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Toronto (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Colorado (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:4

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Lineups

Line 1
60. Woll J. (G)	39. Blackwood M. (G)
22. McCabe J.	8. Makar C. (A)
95. Ekman-Larsson O.	70. Malinski S.
11. Domi M.	88. Necas M.
34. Matthews A. (C)	29. MacKinnon N. (A)
23. Knies M.	95. Olofsson V.
Line 2
25. Carlo B.	84. Burns B.
44. Rielly M. (A)	42. Manson J.
74. McMann B.	13. Nichushkin V.
91. Tavares J. (A)	11. Nelson B. (A)
24. Laughton S.	62. Lehkonen A.
Line 3
28. Stecher T.	15. Ahcan J.
2. Benoit S.	49. Girard S.
89. Robertson N.	54. Brindley G.
55. Roy N.	18. Drury J.
63. Maccelli M.	16. Makar T.
Line 4
53. Cowan E.	94. Kiviranta J.
26. Quillan J.	17. Kelly P.
18. Lorentz S.	93. Bardakov Z.
Substitutes
41. Stolarz A. (G)	35. Posch I. (G)
Coaches
. Berube C.	. Bednar J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 2)
06:19, 0 - 1, Nelson B. (G), Makar C. (A),
07:31, 0 - 2, Nelson B. (G), Lehkonen A. (A), Nichushkin V. (A2)
10:34, Lehkonen A. (2 min),
16:36, Benoit S. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 1)
15:43, Carlo B. (2 min),
18:53, 0 - 3, Drury J. (G), Kelly P. (A), Kiviranta J. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 1)
08:03, Manson J. (2 min),
17:41, 0 - 4, Nelson B. (G), MacKinnon N. (A),
18:25, (2 min),
18:58, 1 - 4, Domi M. (G), McMann B. (A), Cowan E. (A2)

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 3.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Recently, Colorado has had a series of home games.

Colorado will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Toronto: Joshua D. (Upper-Body Injury) Nylander W. (Groin Injury) Tanev C. (Lower-Body Injury)

There will not play in Colorado: Colton R. (Lower-Body Injury) Landeskog G. (Upper-Body Injury) O'Connor L. (Hip Injury) Toews D. (Upper-Body Injury) Wedgewood S. (Personal Reasons)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 77:65. (average 3.9:3.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Toronto won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 26:28. (average 2.9:3.1).

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Last Results with these Odds

Colorado Avalanche - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 47.55%, but this team recently wins 59% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toronto Maple Leafs
NHL
23.01.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Vegas Golden Knights	3:6 ✺
21.01.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Detroit Red Wings	1:2 OT ✺
19.01.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Minnesota Wild	3:6 ✺
17.01.26	Winnipeg Jets - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:4 OT ✺
15.01.26	Vegas Golden Knights - Toronto Maple Leafs	6:5 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLLWL
- Colorado Avalanche
NHL
23.01.26	Colorado Avalanche - Philadelphia Flyers	3:7 ✺
21.01.26	Colorado Avalanche - Anaheim Ducks	1:2 penalties ✺
19.01.26	Colorado Avalanche - Washington Capitals	5:2 ✺
16.01.26	Colorado Avalanche - Nashville Predators	3:7 ✺
12.01.26	Colorado Avalanche - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:4 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

NHL
12.01.26	Colorado Avalanche - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:4 OT
19.03.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Colorado Avalanche	2:1
08.03.25	Colorado Avalanche - Toronto Maple Leafs	7:4
24.02.24	Colorado Avalanche - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:4
13.01.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - Colorado Avalanche	3:5
15.03.23	Toronto Maple Leafs - Colorado Avalanche	1:2 penalties
31.12.22	Colorado Avalanche - Toronto Maple Leafs	2:6

Toronto Maple Leafs - Colorado Avalanche: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide