Match Info

VHL

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Ledovy Dvorets (Neftekamsk)


	Toros Neftekamsk		Norilsk

	1	X	2
	2.33	3.32	2.83
	2.18	3.76	2.9	Watch
	2.1	3.6	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (1.63)	3.56 ↓ (4.17)	2.84 ↓ (4.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toros Neftekamsk
41.8%

Draw
25.9%

Norilsk
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.8%

21.9%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.1%

22.2%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toros Neftekamsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toros Neftekamsk's form might have worsened.

Norilsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Norilsk's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toros Neftekamsk than the current prediction. (+13.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toros Neftekamsk, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Norilsk than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Norilsk, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Toros Neftekamsk - Norilsk Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Toros will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Toros (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
1. Yelin I. (G)	37. Botov M. (G)
85. Budnitsky V.	64. Minayev Y.
36. Gunkin Y.	28. Makeyev N.
79. Nabiev A.	89. Gorbunov D.
56. Suvorov A.	71. Golodnyuk S.
22. Sorokin Y.	69. Skorikov D.
Line 2
33. Agafonov M.	44. Kovalev I.
4. Chebotaryov V.	18. Alexeyev D.
81. Volokitin P.	93. Korenev I.
80. Galiyev E.	56. Mokin N.
38. Skoropad N.	11. Shevchenko V.
Line 3
89. Shcherbakov N.	72. Korchemkin D.
52. Kolganov A.	51. Popov O.
44. Khvorov N.	92. Yakovlev Y.
24. Andreichenko V.	19. Aksenov A.
17. Sychyov V.	10. Lipanov A.
Line 4
46. Yelsukov F.	98. Abdeyev I.
10. Kolesnikov S.	91. Lazarev A.
25. Valeyev T.	63. Yemets I.
82. Kuznetsov A.
Substitutes
49. Braginsky D. (G)	45. Nikitin V. (G)
93. Gimbatov R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 0)
01:59, 1 - 0, Agafonov M. (G), Galiyev E. (A),
17:10, 2 - 0, Volokitin P. (G),
2nd Period (1 - 2)
04:04, 2 - 1, Golodnyuk S. (G),
11:06, 2 - 2, Makeyev N. (G),
19:26, 3 - 2, Shcherbakov N. (G), Nabiev A. (A),
3rd Period (2 - 0)
06:32, 4 - 2, Nabiev A. (G),
16:31, 5 - 2, Khvorov N. (G), Sorokin Y. (A), Budnitsky V. (A2)

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Toros may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Norilsk has had a series of home games.

Toros could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Toros will win today's game, with odds of 1.95.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toros won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 2.4:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Toros won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 2:2.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
4	HC Norilsk	14	7	1	2	4	32:32	18
13	Toros Neftekamsk	12	6	0	2	4	30:29	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toros Neftekamsk
VHL
21.01.26	Toros Neftekamsk - Sokol Krasnoyarsk	3:2 OT ✺
19.01.26	Toros Neftekamsk - Metallurg Novokuznetsk	4:5 penalties ✺
17.01.26	Toros Neftekamsk - Dynamo-Altay	3:2 ✺
12.01.26	Tambov - Toros Neftekamsk	4:2 ✺
10.01.26	Rostov - Toros Neftekamsk	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLWLW
- HK Norilsk
VHL
22.01.26	Izhstal - Norilsk	1:6 ✺
18.01.26	Norilsk - Kristall Saratov	2:3 ✺
16.01.26	Norilsk - Dizel Penza	0:3 ✺
14.01.26	Norilsk - Ryazan	3:4 OT ✺
12.01.26	Norilsk - AKM	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

VHL
27.10.25	Norilsk - Toros Neftekamsk	1:2 OT
18.01.25	Toros Neftekamsk - Norilsk	0:2
03.11.24	Norilsk - Toros Neftekamsk	3:2
02.02.24	Norilsk - Toros Neftekamsk	3:4 penalties
20.09.23	Toros Neftekamsk - Norilsk	4:3 penalties

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