Match Info

NRL - Round 12

Date: 21 May 2026, Thursday

Location: GIO Stadium (Canberra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	9 HD, Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, Nine, NRL
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus


	Canberra Raiders		Dolphins

	1	X	2
	1.7	23	2.2
	1.78	15	2.3
	1.73	22.92	2.21	Watch
	1.7	23	2.2
	1.69	17	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (2.03)	20.18 ↓ (21)	2.24 ↑ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 48.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Canberra Raiders
54%

Draw
4.6%

Dolphins
41.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.5%

4.4%

50.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

4.3%

51%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Canberra Raiders has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Canberra Raiders's performance.

Dolphins has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Dolphins might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Canberra Raiders than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Canberra Raiders that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dolphins than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dolphins could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Canberra Raiders - Dolphins Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 25:25

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weekes K.	1. Fuller T.
2. Tamale S.	2. Isaako J.
4. Timoko M.	3. Bostock J.
5. Savage X.	5. Naufahu T.
6. Laurie D.	6. Schneider B.
7. Sanders E.	7. Katoa I. (C)
8. Horsburgh C.	8. Kaufusi F.
10. Tapine J. (C)	9. Marshall-King J.
11. Mariota A.	10. Molo F.
12. Hosking Z.	11. Lemuelu C.
13. Brailey J.	12. Finefeuiaki K.
14. Pattie O.	13. Knowles M.
17. Stuart J.	18. Pouniu B.
Substitutes
9. Starling T.	14. Donoghoe K.
15. Uta J.	15. Stone R.
16. Smithies M.	16. Gilbert T.
18. Stewart C.	17. Keeley O.
19. Clydsdale J.	19. Symonds L.
20. Black C.	20. Fineanganofo J.
Coaches
. Stuart R.	. Woolf K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (16 - 22)
2', Stuart J. (Try),
4', Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
10', Naufahu T. (Try),
11', Isaako J. (Conversion Goal),
15', Horsburgh C. (Try),
17', Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
21', Knowles M. (Try),
23', Isaako J. (Conversion Goal),
24', Isaako J. (Try),
26', Isaako J. (Missed Conversion),
33', Stone R. (Try),
35', Isaako J. (Conversion Goal),
39', Tamale S. (Try),
40', Sanders E. (Missed Conversion),
2nd Half (6 - 8)
45', Isaako J. (Penalty Goal),
66', Hosking Z. (Try),
67', Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
70', Schneider B. (Try),
72', Isaako J. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: )).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Dolphins may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Canberra won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 121:145. (average 30.3:36.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Canberra won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 71:58. (average 35.5:29).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Canberra Raiders
Australian NRL
10.05.26	Canberra Raiders - Penrith Panthers	18:30 ✺
02.05.26	Gold Coast Titans - Canberra Raiders	12:28 ✺
23.04.26	Wests Tigers - Canberra Raiders	33:14 ✺
17.04.26	Canberra Raiders - Melbourne Storm	26:22 ✺
11.04.26	South Sydney Rabbitohs - Canberra Raiders	34:36 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LWLWW
- Dolphins NRL
Australian NRL
15.05.26	South Sydney Rabbitohs - Dolphins	10:32 ✺
07.05.26	Dolphins - Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs	44:12 ✺
01.05.26	Dolphins - Melbourne Storm	28:10 ✺
25.04.26	New Zealand Warriors - Dolphins	20:18 ✺
17.04.26	Dolphins - Penrith Panthers	22:23 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
07.09.25	Dolphins - Canberra Raiders	62:24
27.04.25	Canberra Raiders - Dolphins	40:28
01.06.24	Dolphins - Canberra Raiders	25:26 OT
29.04.23	Canberra Raiders - Dolphins	31:30 OT

Canberra Raiders - Dolphins: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide