Match Info

NRL - Round 18

Date: 5 July 2026, Sunday

Location: McDonald Jones Stadium (Newcastle)

Referee: Raymond W. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Australia	Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 2
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Action, Sky Sports+


	Newcastle Knights		Dolphins

	1	X	2
	2	29	1.83
	2.1	18	1.88
	2.06	20.13	1.85	Watch
	1.91		1.83	Watch
	2.02	22	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.29)	17.83 ↓ (18.17)	1.85 ↑ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 49.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle Knights
45.3%

Draw
5.1%

Dolphins
49.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.7%

5.1%

54.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.5%

5.7%

48.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle Knights has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Dolphins has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle Knights than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dolphins than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Newcastle Knights - Dolphins Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Newcastle will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Dolphins will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:26

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sharpe F.	1. Fuller T.
2. Young D.	2. Isaako J.
3. Gagai D.	3. Averillo J.
4. Hunt F.	4. Farnworth H.
5. Marzhew G.	5. Naufahu T.
6. Smith S.	6. Nikorima K.
7. Brown D.	7. Schneider B.
8. Saifiti J. (C)	8. Kaufusi F. (C)
9. Crossland P.	9. Marshall-King J.
10. Hopwood C.	10. Molo F.
11. Lucas D.	11. Lemuelu C.
12. McEwen J.	12. Finefeuiaki K.
13. Croker M.	13. Knowles M.
Substitutes
14. Graham H.	14. Donoghoe K.
15. Frizell T.	15. Gilbert T.
17. Cant T.	17. Pouniu B.
18. Crouch L.	18. Su'a S.
19. Manuleleua F.	19. Fineanganofo J.
20. McCarthy K.	20. Elliott S.
Coaches
. Holbrook J.	. Woolf K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (12 - 0)
16', Lucas D. (Try),
18', Smith S. (Conversion Goal),
37', Hunt F. (Try),
38', Smith S. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (1 - 12)
51', Isaako J. (Try),
52', Isaako J. (Missed Conversion),
59', Donoghoe K. (Try),
60', Isaako J. (Conversion Goal),
68', Isaako J. (Penalty Goal),
76', Brown D. (Drop Goal),

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: )).

Newcastle is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Dolphins is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Newcastle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 114:80. (average 22.8:16).

Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 40:18. (average 20:9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle Knights
Australian NRL
28.06.26	Newcastle Knights - Wests Tigers	12:6 ✺
19.06.26	Newcastle Knights - St. George Illawarra Dragons	22:20 ✺
05.06.26	Melbourne Storm - Newcastle Knights	32:30 ✺
30.05.26	Newcastle Knights - Parramatta Eels	28:22 ✺
17.05.26	Gold Coast Titans - Newcastle Knights	12:36 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWLWW
- Dolphins NRL
Australian NRL
27.06.26	Dolphins - New Zealand Warriors	26:24 ✺
20.06.26	Wests Tigers - Dolphins	22:36 ✺
12.06.26	Dolphins - Sydney Roosters	48:10 ✺
06.06.26	North Queensland Cowboys - Dolphins	14:40 ✺
21.05.26	Canberra Raiders - Dolphins	22:30 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
21.06.25	Dolphins - Newcastle Knights	20:26
13.03.25	Newcastle Knights - Dolphins	26:12
08.09.24	Newcastle Knights - Dolphins	14:6
28.04.24	Dolphins - Newcastle Knights	14:18
05.08.23	Dolphins - Newcastle Knights	28:30

Newcastle Knights - Dolphins: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide